Entering Thursday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals, the New York Mets were looking to avoid suffering a series sweep with Carlos Carrasco on the mound.
The odds were not in the Mets’ favor, as Carrasco was coming off two abysmal outings in which he combined to pitch only 4 2/3 innings while allowing 11 earned runs.
This recent trend proved true early in the game, as Carrasco allowed three runs over his first three innings of work. Two came in the bottom of the third inning when Royals’ shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. launched a two-run home run to center field that traveled 425 ft. with an exit velocity of 103.3 mph.
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Manager Buck Showalter referenced Carrasco’s poor start to the game in his postgame comments, stating, “Carlos looked like he was gonna not be able to go very deep, but then battled his way through there.”
While he was able to settle in by ceasing to allow a run in the next three frames, he once again encountered trouble when manager Buck Showalter decided to bring him out in the seventh inning. After allowing two runners to reach base, Carrasco hung a curveball to Drew Waters, and he took full advantage of it with a three-run home run that extended the Royals lead to six runs.
Regarding that three-run home run, Carrasco said after the game, “And then that curveball,” he continued, “It just came down the middle and they got those three runs.”
This mistake proved costly for Carrasco, as it effectively took him out of the game and ruined his chance of attaining a quality start.
His final line: 6+ IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carrasco now owns a 6.60 ERA for the season, the third-highest among qualified MLB starters. He also has a 12.33 ERA in his last four starts.
The value that jumps out the most in this final line is the zero strikeouts. He was not missing any barrels on Thursday, as he could only generate eight whiffs out of his 74 pitches. This whiff rate of 10.81 percent is much lower than Carrasco’s season average of 24.6 percent heading into Thursday’s game.
This poor whiff rate could be explained by Carrasco’s below-average spin rate on his primary pitch. He threw 26 changeups out of his 74 pitches, and the average spin rate was 105 rpm below his season average figure. As a result, batters saw his changeup particularly well, as he only generated four whiffs and no called strikes. This CSW% of 15 percent for his primary pitch is not exactly inspiring when searching for success.
Despite the poor numbers, Carrasco maintained an optimistic attitude regarding today’s performance.
“Every time I go out there, I try to do my best, and that’s what I did today,” he said following the loss.
The bottom line for Carrasco is that time may be ticking on his storied MLB career. In his 14th MLB season at 36 years of age, Carrasco is in the final year of his multi-year agreement that he signed with the Cleveland Guardians before his trade to New York. Based on the Mets’ public comments about their goals for the 2024 season and beyond, it seems Carrasco’s services will not be a part of those plans. That said, he would greatly benefit from a stretch of good outings to revive his dwindling career as this season ends.
