Lucas Duda and Ike Davis rode on very different paths to the major leagues. Davis was a first-round draft pick in 2008 while Duda had to wait until round seven to hear his name read one year earlier. Big things were expected from Davis who has a major league pedigree in place. Duda always seemed like a guy that could develop into an effective power hitter but would likely struggle to find a position. Oh how things change.
Duda wrapped up the 2014 with a career high 30 home runs while Davis hit just 11. Can we expect Duda to hit 30 again next season? Some of those answers can come from looking back at Davis’ Mets career.
In 2012 the Mets thought they had hit the jackpot with Davis. He was flourishing as a defensive first-baseman and hit a career high 32 home runs. During the next few seasons Davis regressed dramatically. He hit just nine home runs in 2013 and that trend continued this season. So what can we expect from Duda in the season following his career high?
Adam Rubin of ESPN makes the case that Duda’s hard-hit ball rate is a good sign:
“The best argument Duda is legit would be his hard-hit ball rate, a stat the Mets have previously pointed to as a reason they like him so much. Based on video review by Inside Edge, which provides data to teams and media, Duda hit balls that rated “hard-hit” in 21.6 percent of his at-bats, ranking him 11th best in the majors among those with at least 300 plate appearances.”
He concludes that this statistic is not an aberration. He has always hit the ball hard. There was only one player with a higher hard-hit ball rate in the National League. His name is Andrew McCutchen.
Another thing that bodes well for Duda are the percentage of home runs he hit at Citi Field compared to on the road in 2014. Duda slugged 14 homers at Citi Field and 16 on the road. That’s 47%. Just in case you need a comparison, only 11 of Davis’ 32 home runs came at Citi Field in 2012. That’s only 34% in a nearly identical number of at-bats.
Rubin concludes “It appears reasonable to believe Duda can replicate his numbers in 2015.” What do you think? Can Lucas Duda replicate his 2014 season next year?
