With a .281 average and a .703 OPS, Juan Lagares quietly posted solid numbers at the plate in 2014. However, not everyone is sold on his ability just yet.
The majority of popular projection systems expect Lagares to regress significantly this season. For example, Steamer projects Lagares to have a .642 OPS while CIARO has Lagares at .660.
One of main reasons why there is skepticism surrounding Lagares’ performance is due to his unusually high .341 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Since the average BABIP for hitters is usually around .300, some analysts have suggested that his respectable numbers last year were enhanced by luck or good fortune.
The problem I have with this argument is that it fails to account for Lagares’ track record.
Lagares has always maintained a high BABIP ever since his breakout year in the minors during the 2011 season. Here is a breakdown of his BABIP by year:
First Half 2011: .379
2nd Half 2011: .439
Full Season 2012: .337
MLB 2013: .310
MLB 2014: .341
It’s clear that having a high BABIP is a outlier and trend for Lagares, and not a fluke.
What allows Lagares to sustain such a high BABIP is his specific skill set. He has above average speed, and he makes solid contact.
This is a surefire recipe for having an elevated BABIP. Speed allows hitters to reach base more frequently on infield hits and bunts, and making good contact at the plate will cause more balls to fall in for hits.
While it’s rare to see a player have a BABIP as high as Lagares’ it’s not unheard of either.
Some interesting comparisons to Lagares would be Dexter Fowler, Jon Jay, Austin Jackson and Lorenzo Cain, who have all managed to maintain a career BABIP of .340 or higher. Granted, these players are extreme cases, but Lagares seems to be one too.
Furthermore, by focusing on the possibility of Lagares regressing, many seem to be overlooking the potential improvements he can make.
Last year was only Lagares’ second year in the majors, and he looks fantastic this spring with a new and revamped approach. He’s batting .346 with three home runs and .404 OBP. While many are predicting a steep drop off in production for Lagares, he may actually surprise with an even better season in 2015.
