Derek G. asks…
I saw this trade proposed by MetsBlog and wanted to get one of your opinions on it. Would you trade Lucas Duda and Zack Wheeler to the Reds for Todd Frazier? Frazier could replace Duda at first base and immediately give the Mets a more consistent hitter that can bat third or fourth in the lineup. Both Duda and Frazier are the same age and still have two years of control so it’s basically a wash there. What do you think?
Joe D. replies…
I’m a huge Todd Frazier fan and we had a similar question to this a few days ago, only it involved moving David Wright to first base.
Here’s the first problem with the trade as I see it. Where would the Reds play Lucas Duda when they already have a perennial All Star and MVP candidate in Joey Votto at first base? Why would they have any interest in Duda?
Secondly, assuming for argument’s sake, they did want Duda, giving them Zack Wheeler as well in the deal is a massive overpay that will hurt the team both in the present and longterm. No way do I trade Duda and Wheeler for Frazier even if they were to throw in a little something back.
Let me take this a little further. Lucas Duda had a 133 wRC+ in 2015 compared to a 114 wRC+ for Todd Frazier. In 2014 Duda also outproduced Frazier with a 136 wRC+ versus 122. Duda has also produced a higher OPS and OPS+ than Frazier over the last two seasons. Essentially, you’re not getting an offensive upgrade if your plan is to replace Duda at first base with Frazier.
Additionally, by playing Frazier at first base instead of third base you wipe out any defensive value he has. Duda is an infinitely better defensive first baseman. Over the last two seasons, Frazier has -6 Defensive Runs Saved at first, while Duda has been good for 9 DRS. That’s a difference of 15 runs. And UZR paints the same exact picture.
So, let me ask you a question now. Why would you give the Reds Zack Wheeler to downgrade the team defensively and offensively at first base?
And as I stated earlier, this is all a moot point because the Reds have Votto at first base and have no plans to displace him.
In my opinion, Duda too often gets a bad rap and is very under-appreciated. He has two years left, which works out perfectly for the Mets as top prospect Dominic Smith will be ready to take over by then.
Bottom Line: We have some significant areas that need real attention. First base is not one of them. Thanks for the email.
