Analyzing Why Trevor Gott Should Return Next Season

Back on July 3, the New York Mets acquired relief pitcher Trevor Gott by taking on the contract of Chris Flexen (6.86 ERA this season), who the team promptly designated for assignment, and relief pitcher Zach Muckenhirn, who was later designated for assignment by the Seattle Mariners, but remained within the organization. Now, after an up-and-down season with the Mets, Gott is arbitration eligible and New York has a decision to make on whether or not to tender the 31-year-old.

Across 29 innings with New York after the trade, Gott pitched to a 4.34 ERA allowing 30 hits and striking out 30. His WHIP of 1.414 was also not an impressive figure. On the surface, pretty lackluster numbers, someone probably not deserving of sticking around.

However, a deeper dive into those figures show that Gott may just be a bounce-back candidate. Most of his expected figure indicate a pitcher that experienced some bad luck, and not necessarily received the actual results he deserved.

Gott’s xERA (3.40), FIP (3.20), and xFIP (4.16) are all lower than his meager overall season ERA of 4.19. Notably, the expected ERA figure ranked in the league’s 82nd percentile. Gott also excelled at getting soft contact (67th percentile in average exit velocity and 68th percentile in hard hit rate) as well as avoiding the opposition from barreling up his pitches (92nd percentile). Add in the fact he did a decent job, overall, not walking batters (67th percentile walk rate) you can see why his actual numbers projected to be much better than they actually were.

Not to mention, as it stands, the Mets’ bullpen is pretty barren. Brooks Raley (club) and Adam Ottavino (player) both have options. Meanwhile, Drew Smith is in the same boat as Gott, as he is arbitration eligible and the Mets have a decision to make there. Really, the only guaranteed piece of the bullpen, who has their respective contract situation figured out, is Edwin Díaz.

With the fact Gott may be a bounce-back candidate, given the discrepancies in his expected and actual statistics, as well as the fact that the bullpen is currently in a pretty tough spot, tendering Gott would be the wise thing to do. Especially since MLB Trade Rumors is only projecting a $2 million value in arbitration.

Tendering Gott, and finding resolution on a deal, would help the Mets begin building the all-important bullpen. Additionally, with a full offseason of additions, it is very unlikely again Gott would serve such a large role in the bullpen like he did last year, increasing the chances of a bounce-back campaign in 2024.