Analyzing NPB Pitchers Transitioning To MLB This Offseason

In recent years, we have seen numerous pitchers make a successful jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. Whether it’s Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, or the New York Mets’ own Kodai Senga, there’s no denying the influx of talent from Japan at the position.

This offseason will only accentuate that trend as several of NPB’s top pitchers are set to be posted by their clubs and thus will be free to sign with any MLB team and make an immediate impact in 2024. Let’s take a look at the players projected to hit the open market and project how they will fare in their transition.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Orix Buffaloes 

The biggest name among this group, Yoshinobu Yamamoto may very well come away with the most sizable deal in free agency this offseason sans fellow countryman Shohei Ohtani. The 25-year-old has spent parts of seven seasons with the Buffaloes and posted a 1.82 ERA over 172 games and just under 900 innings. Yamamoto won both the Sawamura Award, which is NPB’s equivalent of the Cy Young award, and the Pacific League MVP in 2021 and 2022 and is a prime candidate to take home both honors once again after a stellar 2023 campaign in which he recorded a 1.21 ERA with 169 strikeouts in 23 starts. The accolades don’t stop there though, as Yamamoto has also clinched three straight Triple Crown-winning seasons in addition to being a part of Japan’s Gold Medal-winning team at the 2020 Summer Olympics as well as their World Baseball Classic championship-winning team this past spring.

Yamamoto relies on a mid-90s fastball and a splitter as his primary pitches, though he mixes in both a curveball and cutter. He’s widely viewed as a top-of-the-rotation arm both now and in the future as he sits atop a strong starting pitching class in free agency. He has been linked to the New York Mets on multiple occasions in recent months, most recently by Will Sammon of The Athletic, who included in his report that Yamamoto prefers to play in a big market.

Shōta Imanaga, LHP, Yokohama DeNA BayStars 

Shōta Imanaga announced himself to the world during the World Baseball Classic after starting the championship game against the United States and impressing on an analytical level by finishing the tournament with the highest Stuff+ among qualified pitchers. The 30-year-old has spent eight seasons with the BayStars and is a two-time All-Star while coming off of a 2023 season in which he put up a 2.80 ERA across 20 starts with 10.6 K/9 and just 1.5 BB/9.

Imanaga, who boasts a 3.18 career ERA, depends on a low-90s fastball that can reach up into the mid-90s and has received positive reviews for its shape. His go-to secondary pitches are his changeup and slider, both of which he demonstrates good command of and can consistently generate whiffs from. Imanaga’s impending free agency bears a striking resemblance to Senga’s, as both were on the older side upon being posted yet possess the stuff and experience that teams covet. He projects as a mid-rotation arm with an upside that will receive a multi-year deal with an AAV in the mid-teens.

Yuki Matsui, LHP, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

Yuki Matsui’s hype train has picked up steam in lieu of reports that he wishes to utilize his international free agency rights and make the jump to MLB ahead of the 2024 season. If that does transpire, Matsui would not be a part of the posting system after accruing 10 years of service time with the Golden Eagles. The 28-year-old lefty, who pitched to a 1.57 ERA in 2023, differs from Yamamoto and Imanaga in that he is strictly a reliever. Matsui has amassed 236 saves during his time in NPB to go with a career 2.40 ERA, 11.7 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9 across 501 appearances, though it appears his control issues are more of a thing of the past after posting a 2.0 BB/9 mark this season.

Matsui isn’t necessarily a power pitcher as he typically sits in the low-90s with his fastball, but an extensive arsenal highlighted by his splitter and slider more than makes up for it. The five-time NPB All-Star and two-time Pacific League save leader has the putaway stuff that is needed to succeed at the backend of the bullpen and has proven himself time and time again at the highest level, making him an intriguing candidate on the open market.

Naoyuki Uwasawa, RHP, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa hasn’t quite received the level of attention his other NPB counterparts have up to this point, but he’s enjoyed a successful nine-year career as a rotation arm with the Nippon-Ham Fighters and earned a chance to make a name for himself in MLB. Uwasawa is coming off of a 2023 campaign in which he received All-Star honors for the third time in his career while recording a 2.96 ERA across 24 starts. The 29-year-old is an innings-eater who thrives off of his control and durability, but a lack of velocity and true swing-and-miss stuff holds his profile back and categorizes him as more of a high-floor, low-ceiling style of pitcher. There is a place for him in the majors though, and Uwasawa could garner interest as a backend or swingman option.