The Mets are hot. There’s no denying that. But that is precisely why it’s time to play the Devil’s advocate; this whole “score 8 runs per game, make Terry look like a genius, do no wrong” type of play isn’t likely to show up in every one of the 53 games left in the regular season. And even if it did and the Mets won the division by 18 games or so, what fun would that be?
Who among us hasn’t pictured that final series at home against Washington and imagined New York winning the third game to earn the right to play October baseball? And we all know our beloved team too well to think that these next two months will be straightforward and easy. It will be a dogfight.
So just as any good lawyer does, I’m going to get inside the head of the enemy. If I wanted to beat the Mets down the stretch, what advantages might I have on them? Without further ado, and in no particular order, the new-look Mets’ biggest weaknesses, outside of the Wilpons, of course.
Shortstop
With the additions of Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, and Yoenis Cespedes, this is the offensive position most likely to harm the Mets during their stretch run. Ruben Tejada deserves a lot of credit for playing well enough to hold down the position. But down the road, shortstop could become a concern, should Tejada’s production drop. Were he to have a bad week or two at the plate, the most likely solution is to give more playing time to the newly crowned king of New York, Wilmer Flores. Flores has looked better at short recently, but this would undeniably be a defensive downgrade. Uribe could be another option, although he hasn’t played shortstop regularly since 2010. All will be right at this position if Ruben can hit .260 and play average-to-above-average defense for the rest of the season. Difficulties only begin to arise if he can’t be counted on to be the everyday 8 or 9 hitter.
Bullpen
Picking on the Mets bullpen is a bit like forgetting to let your dog out before you leave for the day and returning home to a puddle on the floor; you feel badly because it’s not their fault they were put in that situation, but you still get the urge to yell at them. And let me be clear, this year’s pen is a huge upgrade from seasons passed. But games like the 8-7 loss to the Padres last week and Wednesday’s 6-run 9th inning by Miami do raise some eyebrows. I realize that acquisitions such as Tyler Clippard and, more recently, Eric O’Flaherty, are important improvements. Again, there are very few complaints to be made about the Mets’ relievers as a whole. But there is something slightly unnerving about needing Hansel Robles or Sean Gilmartin (two players who have pitched admirably in 2015 in much larger spots than they were expected to) to get through the seventh inning of an early October game against the Nationals with possible postseason hopes on the line.
Experience
Building off of the previous point, experience is something that Sandy Alderson did his best to add at the deadline in veterans like Uribe, Johnson, Clippard, and Cespedes. However, two of the pitching staff’s three best starters are attempting to complete their first full MLB seasons, while the other is still a rookie. Getting David Wright back in the lineup in the coming weeks will provide a boost, as will a healthy Michael Cuddyer, even if he doesn’t produce up to his standards on the field. But the fact remains that the majority of the players that will be relied upon most in the next two months–Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia, Daniel Murphy, and Lucas Duda–have a combined total of zero playoff experience under their collective belt, matching that of manager Terry Collins. None of them have ever played in games as important as the next 54 will be.
Baserunning
Lack of speed has plagued the Mets really since new Colorado Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes left New York. The Mets are one of three teams in the Majors (Dodgers, Twins) without a double-digit base stealer up to this point in 2015. For as much as the offense and bullpen have been helped by trades these past few weeks, speed is one aspect of the team that was not upgraded. Come October, having a player that can draw a walk and get into scoring position by stealing second, and maybe even third, is an incredible advantage, but something the Mets will have to live without. According to baseball Reference, New York ranks third-to-last in terms of bases taken, which accounts for advancing on plays like fly balls, wild pitches, and passed balls. Even though they are in the top-third of the league in least number of outs made on the base paths (which factors in advancing on a fly ball, trying to take an extra base on a single, etc.), not being able to go first-to-third or move from second to third on a fly out puts the Mets at a disadvantage.
Performance on the Road
After this upcoming series in Tampa Bay, the Mets will have three road trips left this season. While it’s true that New York does have the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, more than half of the team’s games will be played away from Citi Field. The Mets have shown improvement on the road as of late. (Going 10-6 in their past 16 road games after their sweep in Miami has pushed their away record up to 20-32.) With three games in Colorado and seven in Philadelphia, the Mets must capitalize on weaker opponents and realistically win at least seven of those ten games, and a 10-game road trip in early September against three divisional rivals (Nationals included) looms large.
Defense
In theory, the worst of the Mets’ defensive struggles should be behind them. You remember the good ole’ days when the return of Daniel Murphy from the DL meant an improved defense. But even with the addition of Cespedes, fielding could present a problem down the stretch. With so many offensive options now available to Terry Collins, it appears that hitting will be the number one priority, and defense will be managed on a game-to-game basis depending on how often Uribe, Johnson, Murphy, and Cuddyer play, as well as where. I’m not against this strategy, but with Granderson likely patrolling center on certain days and Flores occasionally returning shortstop, we as fans should be prepared for some spotty defense every now and then.
Every team has its weaknesses, and compared to what this list would have looked like a month ago, I can certainly deal with the aforementioned deficiencies. The question is, just how harmful will things like defense and inexperience in key moments be during this playoff push?
