As Tim Healey of Newsday noted earlier this week (an excellent read), New York Mets shortstop Amed Rosario has finally brought his production levels up to the major league mean, as evidenced by his 100-on-the-nose wRC+ heading into Sunday’s series finale at Cincinnati.
A lot has been said about the Mets’ former top-prospect and his at-times slow trudge to this point, but at this juncture in his young career, it’s tough not to be encouraged by Rosie’s clear progress this season.
Beginning with his .284/.318/.413 stretch (102 wRC+) from August 1 last year through the end of the 2018 season, the seeds were sewn for the 23-year-old Dominican product to continue growing as a player this year.
After a respectable start to the 2019 campaign (.274/.319/.406 over 113 plate appearances over the first month of the season), Rosario’s offense fell off the table. From May 1 through June 15, the once highly-touted prospect went just 35-for-158 (.222) with a .262 on-base percentage.
Since then, Rosie’s taken strides that not even the most optimistic Mets fan or pundit could have predicted. Over 339 plate appearances since June 16, Rosario’s slashing .323/.355/.451 with six homers, 17 doubles, three triples, and a 115 wRC+.
That’s a prolonged stretch of above-average production for a player who, up until a couple of months ago, induced more than a light murmur of “bust” whispers.
Amed Rosario heading into the final week of the season with a .287/.323/.432 slash line, notching career-bests in home runs (14) and doubles (28) is something that should be celebrated.
Rosario’s 19.4% strikeout rate, .318 weighted on-base average, 2.6 wins above replacement (FanGraphs), 33.8% hard-hit rate, 13.8% soft-hit rate, and 0.93 win probability added this season are all career-highs, as well.
His defense still leaves a lot to be desired (-14 DRS ranks 20th among qualified MLB shortstops; -0.8 UZR ranks 14th), but his improved play at shortstop in the second half (+4 DRS) gives a glimpse as to Rosario’s ability to adjust, adapt, and, in turn, improve.
A major knock on Rosie’s game has been his inability to draw bases-on-balls. His 5.0% walk rate this season is a career-high but ranks near the bottom of the majors among fellow shortstops.
For a speedster that was pegged as a top-of-the-order threat throughout his minor-league ascent, that’s a bit worrisome.
Rosario’s success out of the eight-hole this season (.370/.390/.580 over 105 PA) gives Mets skipper Mickey Callaway other usage options. But Rosie adding on-base proficiency to his resume would be a boon for this ballclub, no question.
It’s apparent he’s made a concerted effort to lay off pitches outside the strike zone in 2019. After putting up O-Swing% values of 45.5 percent and 41.2 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively, Rosario’s swinging at just 37.6 percent of those pitches in 2019 (63.7% O-Contact rate; 14th among MLB shortstops)
In addition to Rosie’s increased strike zone awareness, he’s whiffing on fewer pitches than he has in the past. His 18.1% swing-and-miss rate during his first foray into The Show in 2017 decreased substantially in 2018 (12.8 percent) and has taken a considerable dip again this year (11.6 percent).
If his offensive strides this season — and improved defensive play over the latter part of the season — are any indication of his dedication to consistently improving his craft overall, we could have a lot to look forward to on both sides of the chalk for Amed Rosario in 2020.
All good things in all good time.
