If Zack Wheeler walks in free agency this winter, the Mets will have a tall task in replacing his production in the starting rotation.
Wheeler, 29, has put up nearly 9 fWAR in the last two seasons for the Mets. If they don’t re-sign him, it’s unlikely anyone in house can give them similar production. There are players on the open market that could, but it seems a foregone conclusion that the Mets won’t dole out the money to those upper echelon pitchers.
However, a low-risk, high reward guy that they should consider is southpaw Alex Wood.
Wood, 28, appeared in just seven games for the Cincinnati Reds in 2019 as he battled a back injury that began in Spring Training and resurfaced in the summer. Thus, his overall results were poor. He recorded a 5.80 ERA, 6.38 FIP surrendered 11 home runs, had a 9.7 barrel rate, a 12.0 opposing launch angle, and a 3.81 wOBA.
It was a year to forget for the longtime Los Angeles Dodger, who will now try and click with a new team and get his career back on track.
While Wood is no sure thing, his price tag is unlikely to be high, he can likely be had on a short-term deal and with his track record, could soften the blow if Wheeler leaves and he bounces back.
In 2019, there were a lot of negatives in Wood’s game, but some of his numbers were in line with what he has done throughout his career.
His hard hit rate (33.6 percent), K% (19.6), BB% (5.9) and exit velocity (87.8) were all like the Alex Wood of old. In a limited sample size, Wood also had a low ground ball rate (38.2%), and 73 percent strand rate. However, his HR/FB (home run to fly ball ratio) of 29.7% is a bit concerning, although that could be chalked up to him battling injury in addition to the juiced baseballs.
Even if he does induce more fly balls than he used to going forward, Citi Field could be a solid ballpark for him to pitch in with its somewhat cavernous dimensions.
Here is what Brooks Baseball had to say about Wood.
His sinker generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has less armside run than typical. His change dives down out of the zone and is slightly firmer than usual. His slider has exceptional depth, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ sliders and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ sliders.
His fourseam fastball (take this with a grain of salt because he’s only thrown 2 of them in 2019) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has some natural sinking action, has essentially average velo and has slightly less natural movement than typical.
Overall, Wood could be a good bounce back candidate in 2019. He has a career 3.40 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, and in his last two years with the Dodgers, put up over 5 fWAR.
General manager Brodie Van Wagenen said the Mets would have to be creative this winter, and that fits this criteria.
