While watching Jacob deGrom do his thing for a televised audience on Tuesday (finally!), we saw a glimpse of something else that should be fun to watch in 2021: the New York Mets’ offense.

Pete Alonso continued his torrid spring with three more hits (including a home run and a double), Francisco Lindor pummeled a ball for his first dinger in the orange and blue, and Dominic Smith hit a towering homer of his own to dead central. With the offseason upgrades New York has made, manager Luis Rojas has a deep and dynamic lineup that has the potential to do damage in a number of ways.

One way the Mets will make an impact in 2021 is with the lineup’s collective power. Alonso’s 69 homers are the most in baseball since the start of 2019, while Lindor is an established 30-plus homer slugger and Michael Conforto has hit at least 25 dingers three times in his career. Then, there are guys like Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis, who each eclipsed the 20-homer plateau for the first time in 2019.

After taking a look at Steamer projections from FanGraphs and doing some looking back on franchise history, this club could be on the verge of a power surge we haven’t yet seen in Flushing.

The Projections

As it currently stands, Steamer is projecting the Mets to have four different players slug at least 20 homers during the 2021 campaign: Alonso (41), Lindor (33), Conforto (32), and Smith (22). Just missing out in this particular category is McNeil, who is projected for 19 at the moment, and Davis, who currently checks in with 17.

When looking at this lovely group of Mets hitters, three of the four projections look spot on. Alonso has enough power to light up a small city, and his strong Grapefruit League showing could be a foreshadowing of a return to his 2019 production. Lindor enjoyed three straight seasons of 30-plus homers from 2017-19 before the shortened 2020 campaign. Conforto’s ability to rack up dingers culminated in 2019 with a career-high 33. If he can continue last year’s breakout (157 wRC+ in 233 plate appearances), this projection surely seems within his range of outcomes.

The only true wild card — at least in the sense of looking at past production — is Smith. He hasn’t hit more than 11 homers in a single season (in 2019), but he would’ve been well on his way last year had it been a normal regular-season schedule (10 homers and a .299 ISO in just 199 plate appearances). The 2020 campaign also included his most MLB plate appearances in a single season, so it’ll be interesting to see how he can build on his own breakout and adjust with regular playing time over a six-month season.

The Mets’ History With 20-Plus Homers

When looking at Mets hitters to accumulate at least 100 plate appearances in a single season, there have been 94 different instances of someone hitting 20-plus home runs. That seems like a pretty healthy number since being established in 1962, but New York has watched its hitters spread that love over a number of seasons.

If we use the 2021 projection of four players surpassing 20 homers as the benchmark, we’ll see that this feat has rarely been accomplished throughout franchise history. While there have been 17 instances of at least three Mets teammates each slugging that many dingers in one year, at least four teammates doing this has happened just four times:

This has been trending toward becoming more of a norm, especially since it’s already happened twice since 2016. And if you’re looking carefully, you’ll see that the 2019 occurrence was the first time in franchise history in which New York had five different players hit 20-plus homers in a single season. So, the mere projections are expecting the Mets to become the fifth group of players to join this club, and if McNeil and/or Davis (or, someone else) can get back over the hump, they’ll join the 2019 squad in a very special and even more exclusive club.

The Mets’ History With 30-Plus Homers

If we up the ante and start looking at Mets players with 30-plus homers in a single season, it obviously becomes a little less frequent. There have been just 34 different instances of a player in Flushing slugging at least that many homers, along with eight pairs of Mets teammates accomplishing this feat at the same time.

We’ve seen a few close calls — like in 2008, 2006, 1999, and 1987 — but we’ve never seen three Mets hitters blast at least 30 dingers in the same season. The closest call came in 1987 when Strawberry (39) and Johnson (36) both did it, while McReynolds just barely missed with 29.

So, right off the bat, Steamer is projecting the Mets to do something we’ve never seen from them before. And, who knows what might happen if Smith vastly outperforms his preseason projections or New York gets surprise power production from an unexpected area of the roster. The key to a good team is more than just homers, of course, but let’s not ignore the fact that all the years mentioned above can be considered some of the more successful ones in franchise history.

If the projections end up being correct and the Mets experience a power surge we haven’t yet seen during a single season, let’s hope that means we’ll also be seeing them play in October for the first time since 2016.