Top Four Starting Pitchers Available Ahead of Trade Deadline

The Mets are currently up 4 games in the NL East and they are up 5 on the Atlanta Braves, who have won the division three years in a row. Not to mention, the Phillies and Braves are also well behind the Mets in the run differential category.

The Mets have had their share on injuries but the team has still been good thanks in large part to their pitching. The starting staff’s fWAR is currently at 8.4. That number is the second highest in baseball, just behind the White Sox.

Obviously there is Jacob deGrom but having the second best starting staff in baseball while Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard have not thrown a pitch is really impressive. The two keys guys to thanks would be Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker. Both rank in the top-15 in baseball for ERA.

While both have been much better than the Mets could reasonably ask for, it is also fair to see if the Mets can add another starter. Due to injuries, Walker has not pitched a full season since 2017 and Stroman did not pitch in 2020 at all.

Meanwhile, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi have had their moments but have also left a lot to be desired. Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco could be back but they have also had setbacks and I do not think that would stop the Mets from making a deadline deal.

With an aggressive owner, an active front office, and a first place team, I fully expect the Mets to look at the starting pitcher market over the next six weeks. Here are the best pitchers that should be on the market. I have excluded names like John Means or German Marquez because while those names could get moved, they are much less likely than the ones about to be discussed.

Kyle Gibson, RHP

Gibson has rebounded from a bad 2020 season and has a sparkling 2.09 ERA. He also sports a 3.12 expected ERA and 3.36 FIP so while he has been lucky, he has still been very good. The biggest change I noticed is that he is using his four seamer a lot less this season and has started featuring a cutter. The results speak for themselves.

It is also worth mentioning that Gibson was someone that worked with Jeremy Hefner while in Minnesota.

He also has a very reasonable contract and has another year on his deal after this season. He is earning $10 million this season but whatever team trades for him will be paying only $5 million or so for the rest of the season. In addition to that, he will only be making $7 million in 2022.

The flip side is that he will have a lot of teams vying for his services. The Rangers will likely not be desperate to move him judging by how they seem to operate. Last year at the deadline, they held onto Lance Lynn and waited until the off-season to move him for Dane Dunning.

I fully expect the Mets to be in on Gibson leading up to the deadline, especially since they would have him for 2022 while Syndergaard and Stroman are impending free agents.

Jon Gray, RHP

Gray is a pending free agent and the Rockies are really bad. Between 2016-2019, Gray’s average fWAR was 3.06 and his stuff has always been very good. His 2020 was pretty ugly but he’s looked a little better this season. His ERA and expected ERA are down more than two runs from 2020 but his FIP and walk rates leave a lot to be desired.

Perhaps getting out of Colorado and working with a smarter coaching staff will do a lot for him. Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee have revived their careers after getting out of Colorado. Many teams are probably using that line of thinking and see Gray as a mid-season project.

The Braves got Kevin Gausman out of Baltimore and he posted a 2.87 ERA for them in 2018.

The acquisition cost likely will not be too high but I also think the Mets should be on the eye for a more consistent arm. I think they would be better off waiting for Carrasco and Syndergaard to return than using prospects to try and turn Gray into a mid-rotation arm.

Michael Pineda, RHP

While he might not be as good as Jacob deGrom, Pineda has become a really good pitcher in his own right. He never seemed to achieve his high prospect status but he has become a middle of the rotation arm in Minnesota.

The Twins are pretty bad and it looks increasingly likely that they are not going to be winning a third straight division title this season. I would imagine they probably flip Pineda because he is a free agent at the end of this season.

Pineda’s 3.70 ERA is fine but his expected ERA is 4.85 while his FIP is 4.47. His fastball velocity has been declining each of the last several seasons. In addition, his swinging strike rate and chase rate are down considerably from his previous seasons and career norms. The contact rate against him is also a lot highest it has ever been.

I think he is likely due for a pretty bad regression so I would certainly stay away if I were the Mets.

Max Scherzer, RHP

I saved the best for last.

Here are the reasons why I could see the Nationals moving Scherzer: he is an impending free agent, they really need to boost their farm system, they are a bad team, and they can still re-sign him in 2022.

Here are the reasons why I could see the Nationals not moving Scherzer: It is Max Scherzer and their fans would certainly love two more months of watching him, trading the best pitcher in Nationals history would be a hard pill for Mike Rizzo to swallow, and Scherzer has 10-5 rights and can veto a trade anywhere he wants.

Scherzer is still elite and he can probably even get a similar deal to Trevor Bauer in the upcoming off-season. Figuring out what the Nationals will do with Scherzer is pretty puzzling. Conventional wisdom says they should move him, but he also might not want to be moved.

There are also a lot of teams who will likely try and stay under the luxury tax. Scherzer is making $34.5 million this season and whatever team acquires him would probably be picking up about $10-12 million. This probably takes teams like the Red Sox and Yankees out of the running unless they had a sudden change of mind about crossing the luxury tax threshold.

The next six weeks will be very interesting, especially for the Max Scherzer watch. I think the Mets could be in very good position to land him if Scherzer’s preferences are to be on the east coast.

As mentioned above, I think Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson will be aggressive in making upgrades and Scherzer’s salary should not be an issue for them. I think the Mets would be NL favorites with Max Scherzer, or at the very least, they would be right up there with the Dodgers.

My Preferences

Ignoring costs, my order of preference would be Scherzer, (a gap the size of the grand canyon) Gibson, (another gap but not as big) Gray, (a reasonably sized gap) and Pineda. I will say that for the first time in a very long time, I know the Mets will be all-in and they will be trying everything they can to make the team better.