Jonah Tong, SP

Player Data: Age: 23 (06/19/2003)
B/T: R/R

2026 Traditional Stats: 3-2, 3.82 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 34 SO, 14 BB, 30.2 IP, 7 G (4 GS)
2026 Advanced Stats: 107 ERA+, 25.4 K%, 10.4 BB%, 3.12 xERA, 3.30 FIP, 4.17 xFIP, 0.6 fWAR, 0.1 bWAR

2026 salary: Pre-arbitration

GRADE: B-

2026 REVIEW

Jonah Tong showed up to spring training with the goal of adding a horizontal breaking pitch so he could force his way onto the major league roster. Instead, he tried out multiple versions of cutters, sliders, and curveballs as well as multiple sinker/two-seamer shapes. None of them really worked. The cutter has at least become a somewhat usable pitch, but it is there to bridge to a breaker that does not really exist. At times he has flashed a real slider, but he did not throw it once when he came back to the majors. His last start of the season is where he showed what could be his true path to being a legitimate major league starter.

Heading into the season, I wrote for Mets Minors that getting his curveball over 80 MPH will help it play up even further as a swing-and-miss pitch, and there are not typically downsides to increasing fastball velocity. Finally, in his last start, we saw him do exactly that, averaging 80.2 miles per hour on his curveball.

That start, he generated an incredible 50% whiff rate and 19 overall whiffs. All of the pitches, including the cutter, played up, and the curveball velocity was likely a big factor. All nine curveballs thrown generated whiffs, showing that hitters could not just ignore and spit on it. This could be the version of Tong that develops into a mid-rotation starter and getting there, even if for only one start, is a big development in what was a season of ups and downs.

Tong threw 107 innings in Triple-A to a 4.54 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His struggles came largely from the long ball with a 1.9 HR/9, an issue we did not see in his small sample in the majors. Syracuse was listed as one of the most home run-friendly parks in 2025, and seeing Tong’s stats, it would not surprise me if that was the case again this year.

But park factors were not his only issue. Tong had issues with his arm slot as he worked on developing a better breaking ball, which made his fastball movement fall off a cliff. It took him almost two months to adjust his arm slot so he could get that outlier movement back while still retaining some level of horizontal break. After all the changes, he ended up with three solid pitches:

  • A 19 iVB fastball with a curveball around 80 miles per hour and 2,750 rpm
  • A plus changeup in the high 80s with 15 inches of arm-side movement thrown 25% of the time
  • The cutter in the low 90s with three inches of horizontal break

That is at least a legitimate major league pitcher. Can he maintain that? We will see next year. Development is not linear, and we saw that here.

The struggles across the Triple-A season, despite decent MLB success, make it hard to give Tong a solid great. But it is hard to argue this was truly a lost season since he made legitimate changes that can help set him up for 2027. There are arguments for him as an A if you factor only his major league appearances, and down to a C- if you heavily factor his minor league performance, so in-between seems right.

Jonah Tong by Roberto Carlo

2027 PREVIEW

Each of the last two seasons, Tong has shown up to camp with increased velocity. At only 23, I am curious to see if that happens again. That could be the key to taking the next step, as we saw in his last start. Mets manager Andy Green was clear in his media time that Tong does not have a guaranteed Opening Day roster spot and will have to force his way onto the roster. However, it is hard not to be encouraged by his changes in September. There is always the potential that Tong’s future is as a reliever, but the last few weeks of the season showed how he could be effective as a starter.

It is hard to say what the 2027 Opening Day rotation will look like. Barring injuries, McLean and Scott should be locks. Unless he is traded or hurt, you would think Sean Manaea‘s salary would lock him into a spot, but it did not in 2026. Zac Thornton had great results, but many of his metrics under the hood raise questions on how sustainable that is, similar to David Peterson through his great stretch. Do the Mets land Tarik Skubal? Do they use some of this prospect capital to grab a starter like Reid Detmers? Do they go into camp with competition for the final rotation spot between names like Tong, Thornton, Tobias Myers, Jonathan Santucci, and whatever non-roster invitees come into camp?

There are paths for Tong to show up to camp, dominate, and force his way onto the roster even without injuries. My expectation is that he begins the season in Triple-A and throws at least 20 starts in the majors in 2027. It would not shock me if his results are similar to where they ended in the majors this year. Barring Tong being traded, I expect he will play a big role for the Mets major league club in 2027.