Dedniel Núñez played a big part in the success of the Mets during the 2024 season, pitching 35 innings to a 2.31 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The expectation was that he would play a big factor in their 2025 season, but injuries limited him to only 9 2/3 innings and his season was cut short by an elbow injury that forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery.

On June 25, Núñez began his rehab assignment with St. Lucie and has made it back to Triple-A Syracuse. He is still listed on the 60-day injured list despite it being more than 30 days since his initial rehab assignment began. Pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery can get up to 30 additional days of rehab in ten day increments with approval from the commissioner’s office, so that means Núñez has to either return at the latest date of August 24 if they were to use all 60 days. 40 days would put them at the August 4 trade deadline.

Throughout his rehab, Núñez has thrown 12 innings to a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but has looked better in Triple-A with a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. That said, we know better than to just rely on an eight-inning sample of ERA against lesser talent than he will face in the majors, so how do his pitches actually look?

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Dedniel Núñez’s Pitch Metrics

The first thing that stands out is that his velocity is right in line with where it was in 2024. His fastball in Triple-A has averaged 95.6 mph and his slider has averaged 87.4 mph. He has also worked in a 90.9 mph changeup. His overall movement profile looks pretty similar to 2024, though he is generating slightly more ride with his fastball.

The one concern is that his spin rates are down significantly from 2024. His slider has lost over 200 rpm of spin and his fastball has lost almost 150. His spin rates have been climbing as he has thrown more with the major league baseball though – in his last three outings, his slider was down 170 rpm from 2024 and his fastball was down 115. Ideally, these spin rates will continue to get closer to where they were before his surgery.

All of this has led to a very strong 41.8% whiff rate, 40.8% chase rate, and zero hard hit balls so far. Recently, he has been attacking the zone more, has done an up-down, and has pitched on back-to-back days.

All of these are good signs that Núñez is heading in the right direction.

What’s Next for Núñez?

As mentioned before, Núñez theoretically can rehab for a few more weeks. As it stands, he can stay down until the trade deadline without needing an extension. That could line up perfectly for him to replace a reliever the Mets may trade. The remainder of 2026 will be a good, low-pressure environment for Núñez to get the rust off and prepare to ideally be an impact piece in the Mets’ 2027 bullpen. It will also give the Mets a chance to evaluate how he looks post-surgery as they plan for how the bullpen will be structured next season.