Welcome back from the All-Star break! The New York Mets (40-57) open the second half on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies (54-43), who will resume play two games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top spot in the National League East. The next few weeks will serve as an evaluation period for New York. The Mets will be sellers at the deadline, which will be important in their pursuit to bounce back in 2027. Their best trade chips come from their bullpen, which has been the team’s biggest strength all season long. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups this weekend.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

  • Thursday: Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA): After an up-and-down return to the big leagues, Scott has settled in as one of the better arms in the Mets’ rotation. Since May 24, he is 2-1 with a 2.62 ERA over 34 1/3 innings. The next step for Scott is to pitch deeper into games. He has yet to complete six innings this season, throwing five innings or less in seven of his 12 starts. Nola is in the midst of a second straight disappointing season. Since the start of June, he is 0-2 with a 5.80 ERA over eight starts. The long ball has been a major issue for Nola, giving up 11 home runs over his last 46 1/3 innings. He has yet to earn a win at home in 2026, pitching to a 6.81 ERA over eight starts in Philadelphia.
  • Saturday: Sean Manaea (2-4, 4.56 ERA) vs. Jesús Luzardo (8-4, 3.51 ERA): The second half presents a good opportunity for Manaea. Since being reinserted into the rotation, the veteran is 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA over 32 innings. Manaea is coming off his best outing in quite some time, allowing three runs (two earned) over seven innings against the Kansas City Royals last Thursday. This is an important stretch for him to show he can be a valuable piece for the Mets in 2027. Luzardo is one of the most in-form starters in the game. Since June 10, the All-Star is 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA over six starts. Luzardo is coming off a fantastic outing, striking out 11 over seven scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds last Thursday. A difficult test for the Mets’ lineup.
  • Sunday: Nolan McLean (6-6, 3.52 ERA) vs. Alan Rangel (0-2, 4.19 ERA): McLean has looked more like himself of late. He has given up two earned runs over his last 18 innings, lowering his ERA from 4.03 to 3.52 over that stretch. McLean’s ERA reached a season-high 4.40 on May 25. Since then, he has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of eight starts. McLean has been fantastic in a limited sample size against the Phillies, pitching to a 0.68 ERA over 13 1/3 innings against them. Rangel faced the Mets in bulk relief on June 27, allowing four runs over four innings. His two appearances in the time since have both been starts, allowing three runs over 7 1/3 innings. Rangel has thrown 70 pitches or more in three of his five outings this season. It will be interesting to see how much length he can provide.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

As I mentioned before, the main focus for the Mets is the trade deadline. The team is going to look a lot different in the first week of August. With that in mind, a secondary focus should be on the guys who will look to be impactful next season. The names that immediately come to mind are Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos (currently on the injured list), to a lesser extent. I think the second half will also be important for Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr., who will try to regain rhythm and rebuild their value. Important subplot for the Mets.

PREDICTION

I’ll keep this short and sweet. The Mets haven’t shown any signs of life. Meanwhile, the Phillies have turned a corner and are now one of the better teams in the National League. This series is only going one way. The Phillies will take two of three.