A lot of Spring Training is noise, but at the end of March we looked at one data point for each hitter in spring to see if they would translate to the regular season. One month in we check back in to see if any of these stuck into the regular season.

Freddy Peralta – Zone Rate – Did Not Maintain

Freddy Peralta has averaged roughly the same innings per start in 2026 as he did in 2025. In spring training, he attacked the zone 50% of the time which led to a 5.7% walk rate. So far he has only attacked the zone 44.4% of the time and has walked 9.8% of batters. His zone rate is almost identical to 2025 and his walk rate is slightly higher than his 9.1% that year. If he wants to go deeper into games he will need to throw in the zone more and walk less batters.

Nolan McLean – Swinging Strike Rate – Maintained

Nolan McLean ran a 30.3% strikeout rate in the majors in 2025 despite only a 12% swinging strike rate. In spring, his 12.6% swinging strike rate was largely the same as in 2025. So far he has maintained a 33.3% strikeout rate with a 12.1% swinging strike rate. His ability to get called strikes so far has allowed him to sustain such an elite strikeout rate.

David Peterson – Zone Rate – Did Not Maintain

David Peterson ran a 49.4% zone rate in 2025, and in 2024, it was 47.2%. Across spring training, Peterson threw his pitches in the zone 51.8% of the time, led by his sinker, which he threw 66.2% of the time. He completely reversed course so far this season running his worst zone rate of the last three years at 44.3%. His sinker has only run a 57.8% zone rate, and he has walked 9.7% of batters. When he has thrown in the zone he has left his pitches in the middle of the zone far too often.

Kodai Senga – Fastball Velocity – Maintained

Kodai Senga hit 98.9 miles per hour on his fastball and averaged 96.1 miles per hour. He has averaged 95.3 miles per hour in the regular season, which is down from spring training but roughly the same as it was in 2023. He has maxed out at 99.2 miles per hour. While his velocity is good, Senga has struggled heavily this season in his starts so far. His stuff overall has looked very similar to 2023, but he has struggled to locate his pitches leading to his struggles, potentially due to the spine injury that landed him on the injured list.

Clay Holmes – Walk Rate – Maintained

Clay Holmes wants to go deeper into games, and so far he has, pitching seven innings twice so far while averaging six innings per start. In 2025, he posted a 9.3% walk rate but in spring, he walked only 5.3% of batters. He has completely changed how he attacks batters this season prioritizing quick outs with his sinker and that has led to a 7.7% walk rate. This new style of pitching has allowed him to go deeper into games.

Sean Manaea – Fastball Velocity – Improved

Sean Manaea averaged 88.6 miles per hour in spring after averaging 91.7 miles per hour in 2025. So far, he has averaged 89.7 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball, though his velocity has increasing across the last month with him throwing more pitches. In his most recent two appearances Manaea averaged 90.3 and 90.1 miles per hour in long relief. Unfortunately, he gave up eight runs across those six innings. His underlying metrics were good but not great. He has maxed out at 91.8 miles per hour.

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Tobias Myers – Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate – Maintained

Tobias Myers generated only a 17.3% strikeout rate and 10.9% swinging strike rate. In spring he generated a 30.4% strikeout rate despite a 12.4% swinging strike rate. So far in 2026 he has only run a 10.3% swinging strike rate but has run a 22.5% strikeout rate. This is a strong early showing from Myers who could join the rotation as a full-time member sooner rather than later.

Devin Williams – Glove Side Movement – Did Not Maintain

In 2025, Devin Williams did not throw a single pitch that broke glove side. He felt hitters seemed to realize they could sit on one side of the zone and only had to adjust to velocity. In spring, Williams threw 23 of his 92 pitches glove side (25%). His cutter averaged -4.1 inches of horizontal break and his slider averaged -6.5 inches of horizontal break. So far 2026 has been a rollercoaster of dominant appearances, and appearances where he can’t buy an out. He has not thrown his cutter or slider once this season, throwing his fastball and changeup both almost 50% of the time. He is still running elite whiff and chase rates, but it is curious that he has dropped the pitches he spent the spring working on.

Luke Weaver – Barrel Rate – Did Not Maintain

In 2025, Luke Weaver struggled with home runs. His 1.50 HR/9 is worse than his 1.38 HR/9 rate in 2025. In 2025 batters ran an 8.3% barrel rate against him and averaged 89.7 miles per hour exit velocity with a 27.4% ground ball rate. In spring, Weaver generated slightly more ground balls at 30% with a better average exit velocity of 86.1 miles per hour, and did not allow a single barrel. So far, his 10.5% barrel rate is far worse than it was in 2025, but batters are only averaging 86.8 miles per hour off him and he is running a 47.4% ground ball rate so ideally this will level out.

Luis García – Velocity – Did Not Improve

Luis García lives and dies on his velocity. In spring, García averaged 94.8 miles per hour on his sinker and topped out at 96.5 miles per hour. He has had a history in recent years of needing a few weeks to ramp up his velocity but that did not come to pass with the Mets as he was cut in mid-April after averaging 94 miles per hour and maxed out at 96.3 miles per hour. It will be interesting to see if his velocity rebounds with his new team.

Brooks Raley – Barrel Rate – Did Not Maintain

Brooks Raley did not allow a single barrel in 2025 or in spring training. His 12% barrel rate is the worst of his career by a large margin. It is also a small sample size of innings and is a total of three barrels given up. Ideally this is just a blip on his season.

Huascar Brazobán – Vertical Attack Angle – Maintained

Huascar Brazobán raised his arm angle which helped lead to a -6.2 VAA on his sinker in spring training which was a 5% increase over where he was in 2025 (-5.9). His -6.1 VAA is right in line with where he was in spring as he has kept his higher arm angle. He has attacked the zone with that pitch and batters have only hit .200 against it, a marked improvement of the .263 AVG from 2025.