Checking in on Spring Training Trend Lines – Hitters (April)

A lot of spring training is noise, but at the end of March, we looked at one data point for each hitter in spring to see if they would translate to the regular season. One month in we check back in to see if any of these stuck into the regular season.

Francisco Lindor – Average Exit Velocity – Maintained

In his limited spring training games after his hamate injury Francisco Lindor maxed out at 104.5 miles per hour this spring and averaged 91.7 miles per hour. Before he went on the injured list, Lindor averaged 90.9 miles per hour. This is 0.8 miles per hour harder than what he averaged in 2025. This was a good sign that the hamate surgery did not seem to have a big impact on his power output.

Juan Soto – Swing% – Maintained

In spring training Juan Soto was more aggressive with a 41% swing rate. He has kept up that aggressiveness with a 41.3% swing rate and it has helped lead to an absolutely insane 24.5% barrel rate for the month of April. Even more impressive is that he is only striking out 11.8% of the time to a 14.7% walk rate. His zone-contact rate of 90.1% is among the best in his career and he is hitting the ball as hard as ever.

Bo Bichette – Swing% – Has Not Maintained

Bo Bichette in spring training was much more patient than usual, swinging 41% of the time. Bo has not been patient at all this season with a 54.8% swing rate. That is right in line with where he was in 2025 (53.1%). While the results have not been there, his contact profile is exactly where you would expect and he is still hitting the ball hard.

Jorge Polanco – K% – Maintained

Jorge Polanco is coming off a 2025 season where he ran a 15.6% strikeout rate. In spring training he only struck out 12.8% of the time. Before going on the injured list he struck out slightly more than 2025 at 18%, but that was still above average in the 68th percentile. So far it would seem his strikeout improvements have carried over.

Luis Robert Jr. – Chase Rate – Has Not Mantained

Luis Robert Jr. has struggled in his career with chasing. In the offseason he worked with Juan Soto on improving his plate discipline and in spring training he only chased 21.3% of the time. Robert started off the season not chasing but it seemed to be more passivity than plate discipline. As the month went on he started to chase more and then went on the injured list with a back injury. It is unclear if that injury impacted him in that area, but he ended the month with a 32.1% chase rate.

Francisco Alvarez – Pulled Fly Ball Rate – Somewhat Maintained

Francisco Alvarez worked with JD Martinez and the coaches he recommended at Maven to change his swing to stop prioritizing pulling the ball in 2025. After he was sent down to Triple-A he adjusted back to his old swing and saw better results. In spring training, he pulled the ball in the air at a 23.8% rate, which was in the 89th percentile. Alvarez has not pulled in the air as much in spring training, but his 14.1% pulled fly ball rate is a huge step up from his 5.8% in 2025.

Brett Baty – Zone Contact Rate – Somewhat Maintained

In 2025, Brett Baty traded contact for power with a 79.8% zone contact rate. In spring training so far, Baty put up a 90% zone contact rate while still showing his power gains from 2025. Baty has been much less consistent with his swing to start 2026, and while his exit velocities are not terribly far off from 2025, his 82.6% zone contact rate is a moderate improvement over 2025. But he is not lifting the ball nearly as much or barreling the ball up as much he did in 2025. He did seem to make some swing changes in mid April which led to a huge jump in zone-contact (89.7%), an 8.7% barrel rate, and much better exit velocities alongside a .241/.371/.379/.751 slash the last 11 games of the month, so maybe he could be turning a corner.

Carson Benge – Max Exit Velocity – Somewhat Maintained

Carson Benge’s hardest hit ball of the spring came in at 110.8 miles per hour. So far he has yet to hit a ball that hard in the regular season, with a max exit velocity of 108.9 miles per hour so far. He has accessed his power more consistently though with a 91.1 miles per hour average exit velocity and 105.4 miles per hour 90% exit velocity compared to 87 and 104.6 respectively in spring training.

Marcus Semien – Hard Hit Rate – Has Not Maintained

Marcus Semien came into camp looking to drive the ball with more power and his 52.9% hard hit rate was significantly higher than his 36.6% hard hit rate in 2025. This has not carried over at all into the regular season. He has averaged a 35.6% hard hit rate in April, right in line with 2025.

Mark Vientos – Barrel Rate – Has Not Maintained

Mark Vientos ran a 14.6% barrel rate in spring. So far in the regular season he has run by far the worst barrel rate of his career at 3.5%. He has largely been a singles hitter without the bat to ball skills or pitch recognition to be a successful contact hitter. He is not hitting the ball hard, is not walking, and is struggling to make consistent contact. This has led him to be a low average hitter with a low SLG and a poor on base percentage. These trends have started to shift in May, though.

Luis Torrens – Pull Rate – Maintained

In 2025 Luis Torrens’ pulled fly ball rate was only 9.7% last year. In spring training, he has pulled the ball even less at only 5.3%. But his overall pull rate of 47.1% was significantly higher than his 32% in 2025. Torrens has continued to pull the ball overall at a much higher rate than 2025, at 44%, but is still not consistently lifting the ball with a pulled fly ball rate of only 8.0%.

Tyrone Taylor – Barrel Rate – Has Not Maintained

In 2022, Tyrone Taylor barreled up the ball 9.9% of the time. In 2025, he only put up a 3.8% barrel rate. In spring Taylor put up a 10% barrel rate. His 2026 barrel rate of 2.4% is down from his 3.4% in 2025, and still not close to the level it was in 2024 when he hit 17 home runs. Taylor needs to start hitting the ball harder or needs to start making more contact if he wants to justify his spot on this roster.