With 22 games to go, the New York Mets (75-65) are not completely safe in the National League playoff picture. As play begins Friday, they own the third Wild Card spot, four games ahead of the San Francisco Giants. The Mets also remain six games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East with four head-to-head matchups remaining. There is still a lot to play for. The Mets got off to a good start in September, taking two of three from the Detroit Tigers.

The Cincinnati Reds (70-70), who are five games back of the final Wild Card spot, have lost seven of their last 10. It’s certainly a critical series for them as well. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

Jonah Tong by Roberto Carlo

PITCHING MATCHUPS

  • Friday: David Peterson (8-5, 3.61 ERA) vs. Andrew Abbott (8-5, 2.65 ERA): For large stretches of this season, Peterson was the only reliable starter in the Mets’ rotation. But like some of his teammates, he is in the middle of a rough stretch. Over his last five starts, Peterson is 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA. Walks have been an issue as of late, surrendering 15 over his last 25 innings. Peterson will try to bounce back against Cincinnati, a team he has yet to beat in his career (four starts). Abbott is having his best season yet. But like Peterson, he is also struggling. Abbott finished the month of August with a 4.62 ERA across five outings. In particular, his last two starts were difficult: nine runs allowed (eight earned) over nine innings pitched.
  • Saturday: Jonah Tong (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Brady Singer (12-9, 4.08 ERA): Mets fans will get their second opportunity to watch Tong take the ball at the big league level. His first start was good, as he went five innings and gave up four runs (one earned), six hits and six strikeouts against the Miami Marlins last Friday. If some plays were made behind him, Tong may have pitched into the sixth inning. He threw 97 pitches in that start, so the potential to go deeper against the Reds is absolutely there. Singer has been a reliable, backend starter for Cincinnati all season. August was a good month for him, going 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA over six starts. That stretch included four starts with six innings pitched. Singer has performed well at home this season, pitching to a 3.19 ERA.
  • Sunday: Brandon Sproat (8-6, 4.24 ERA in Triple-A) vs. Hunter Greene (5-4, 2.70 ERA): The wait is finally over. Sproat has joined Tong and Nolan McLean in the big league rotation, at least for now. Going into this season, the expectation was that Sproat would be the first young starter to debut. That was not the case, but his promotion comes at a good time, as he has pitched to a 2.44 ERA over his last 59 innings for Triple-A Syracuse. Greene has been limited to 15 starts this season. Unfortunately, injuries have been a big factor since he debuted for the Reds in 2022. But when he has been healthy, Greene has pitched like one of the best starters in the National League. He is 0-2 with a 4.84 ERA in two career starts against the Mets.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

Francisco Alvarez is back. The Mets’ starting catcher is set to return during an important stretch in the season. The question is, how much can he provide for them? Alvarez is dealing with a right thumb sprain and a left pinky fracture. Not ideal, especially for a catcher. Alvarez was red-hot before he had to go on the injured list. Over a 21-game stretch, he was slashing .323/.408/.645 with four home runs and 13 RBIs. It appeared that previous demotion to Triple-A Syracuse paid off in a big way. If he can play through the pain but more importantly succeed through the pain, a Mets lineup that is performing very well would quickly get a whole lot deeper.

PREDICTION

This is an important series for both teams. The Reds need a series victory, maybe even a series sweep to remain in the Wild Card hunt. On the other hand, the Mets are looking to stay within striking distance of the Phillies in the division. With the way Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and the rest of the offense are performing, I can only seeing this series going one way. The Mets will take two of three.