There are just 16 days until Opening Day, and after an eventful last couple of weeks for the Mets, it feels appropriate to project who the Mets will break camp with. (We’ll do a final one in two weeks after they’ve played their last spring game.)

Let’s dive in.

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Starting Lineup

  1. Francisco Lindor, SS
  2. Juan Soto, RF
  3. Mark Vientos, 3B
  4. Pete Alonso, 1B
  5. Brandon Nimmo, LF
  6. Jesse Winker, DH
  7. Jeff McNeil, 2B
  8. Jose Siri, CF
  9. Luis Torrens, C

The biggest shakeup here is Luis Torrens breaking camp as the Mets’ starting catcher. Francisco Alvarez had surgery on a broken hamate bone Monday, and he’s not expected to return for six to eight weeks. That puts him at a return in early May, and that’s only if he heals well and feels he can ramp up on a typical schedule. (He has proven in the past to be a quick healer.)

The only other question mark here right now is Brandon Nimmo. The 31-year-old still hasn’t played in a Grapefruit League game, and there have been too many vague updates around his status for one’s liking. The last one involved a “gel injection” and a period of inactivity of two to three days.

This will be a big week for Nimmo with Opening Day just over two weeks away. Carlos Mendoza said he might DH in a couple days. He’s a prime candidate to start the year on the injured list if things don’t turn around in a couple of days. If he does, Luisangel Acuña could make the team.

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Bench

  1. Tyrone Taylor, OF
  2. Starling Marte, OF/DH
  3. Brett Baty, 2B/3B
  4. Jakson Reetz, C

Since the last projection, Nick Madrigal entered camp with a Cubs bag and left with a separated shoulder. He’ll miss the season. Torrens was also elevated to the starting lineup, meaning there are a couple of bench spots left to win.

The first slot goes to Brett Baty. He’s hitting the ball really well in spring, slashing .375/.444/.708/1.152 across 27 plate appearances, but we’ve heard this song before. He is showing a little more lift and power than in previous years, though, and if he is going to succeed in the majors, he needs to slug more. He’s also gotten reps at second as well as third. I think they’re going to give him a chance.

Now, as for backup catcher, your guess is as good as mine. Jakson Reetz, Chris Williams, and Hayden Senger are the candidates, and you could probably make an argument for either one to make a couple of starts over the first month of the year until Alvarez returns. Williams and Reetz have the legs up over Senger, and I’m guessing they go with Reetz. With Reetz, they’ll I think they’ll have a better chance at passing him through waivers when his time on the 40-man is up starting the year. It’s not sound logic, but that plus MLB experience gives him the edge. (If you’re reading into anything, he also backed up Torrens in Monday night’s game when the Mets put out as close to an Opening Day lineup as possible.)

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Rotation

  1. Kodai Senga, RHP
  2. Clay Holmes, RHP
  3. David Peterson, LHP
  4. Griffin Canning, RHP
  5. Paul Blackburn, RHP

Over the last month, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas have fallen to injury. Manaea’s oblique strain seems to be far less long-term than Manaea’s lat strain, but either way, both will start the year on the IL.

If the Mets stick with a six-man rotation as expected, this would be easy. But, I think the Mets break camp with five starters. They have three off days in the first two weeks and can finagle rest for those who need it. Given that expectation, they have an option left on Tylor Megill (somehow), and I think they use it to delay starting the year with a six-man rotation.

Max Kranick is a dark horse here, though he’s made his presence known this spring and might force himself into the rotation come Opening Day.

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Bullpen

The Mets’ bullpen situation gets a little easier to project with injuries to the rotation, pushing Canning into an obvious starting slot. That, plus an extra slot (I project) after starting the year with five men in the rotation, the Mets can carry eight relievers to start the year. Here’s who I think they’ll carry:

  1. Edwin Díaz, RHP
  2. A.J. Minter, LHP
  3. Ryne Stanek, RHP
  4. José Buttó, RHP
  5. Reed Garrett, RHP
  6. Danny Young, LHP
  7. Dedniel Núñez, RHP
  8. Huascar Brazoban, RHP

This is the most straightforward the bullpen can be with the guys on the 40-man roster. Those who have pitched have all pitched fine (or great) this spring, and they don’t need to make any funky roster moves to get someone on the Opening Day roster. Barring injury, I expect the Mets to break camp with these guys.

However, there are two wild cards: Núñez and Minter.

At the start of the spring, I believed the Mets would start Núñez in the minors given he ended 2024 injured. They’ve brought him along slowly, and he threw live batting practice on Monday for the first time this spring. The Mets still plan to have him open the season on the roster. We’ll see.

Minter seems about a week ahead of Núñez, as he faced live BP on March 2 for the first time since his hip surgery.

Both seem on the plus side of being ready by March 27, so we’ll project them to make the roster for now. Grant Hartwig and Tyler Zuber could be options to break camp if either aren’t ready.