Are Mets Facing Their Sink-Or-Swim Moment?

To say the 2021 season has been a roller coaster of emotions for the New York Mets is probably a bit of an understatement. One can only assume that with their next 13 games against the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, we won’t be getting off this ride very soon.

Manager Luis Rojas watched his club limp back home to Citi Field earlier this week following a 1-6 road trip which included them falling out of first place for the first time in three months. In typical Mets fashion, they pulled us back in on Wednesday with a dramatic come-from-behind victory against the Washington Nationals. They followed that with a doubleheader sweep on Thursday, which is good because they’re now about to enter the gauntlet:

• three games at home against Los Angeles
• three games in San Francisco
• four games in Los Angeles
• three games at home against San Francisco

Facing baseball’s two best teams continually for two weeks straight? Phew, this is going to be interesting (we hope, at least). New York enters this brutal stretch with a 59-55 record while being a half-game out of first place in the National League East. It’s easy to see that this stretch is a legitimate “sink-or-swim” moment for the Mets’ season, but here are some specific reasons as to why.

Dodgers and Giants Are Great in All Situations

Any way you slice it, Los Angeles and San Francisco have performed excellently throughout the duration of this season. The Mets will get to play six games out of this upcoming two-week stretch at Citi Field, where they’ve posted a 36-20 record so far in 2021. That’s somewhat comforting, but it’s not as if being the visiting club intimidates either of these NL West contenders.

Away from their home parks this season, the Giants have posted a 36-24 record, while the Dodgers are 33-26. And although New York has performed much better recently against teams with a winning record — let’s not forget they started the year 2-10 in this category — they’re still just 31-32 in that particular situation.

Oh, yea…the Mets playing six of their next 13 games at home means they will be hitting the road for the other seven, which hasn’t been a recipe for success with this club. New York is currently sporting a 23-35 record on the road in 2021, while the Giants are 37-17 at Oracle Park and the Dodgers are 36-20 at Dodger Stadium.

By the looks of it, the Mets will have to figure something out here to simply play .500 ball, let alone try and gain ground on anyone in the standings.

Mets’ Offense Needs To Be Consistent

Prior to Opening Day, many of us expected the Mets’ offense to be among the league’s best units, and that’s far from what they’ve been to this point in the season. There have been spurts where the offense has seemingly fired on all cylinders, looking a lot like the group we were expecting to enjoy throughout 2021. However, there have also been many times when any semblance of production just completely vanishes.

There have been some bright spots, but as a unit, New York’s offense has been below average and among the bottom third of the league when using wRC+ as the barometer. While playing at San Francisco and Los Angeles will technically be a positive park shift for the Mets when looking at ESPN’s 2021 Park Factors, it’s not as if these stadiums are offensive havens.

Add in the fact that the Giants and Dodgers have put together two of the more productive starting rotations in the National League, and it’ll be a tall order for Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and friends to get some consistent offense going. Looking at rankings in the Senior Circuit, both clubs rank within the top five in rotation ERA and fWAR. So, it’s not going to be easy for the boys in orange and blue, but at least they’re fresh off some success at the plate from the Nationals series. That’s good because LA is expected to send Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, and Max Scherzer to the mound this weekend.

Easily The Toughest Schedule 

We’ve talked about the Mets’ upcoming schedule enough on this internet webpage for everyone to know it’s not going to be easy. And while I just said New York needs to focus on itself and not worry about what other NL East teams are doing, I’m going to do it anyway because, well, I don’t play for the Mets, so I can scoreboard watch.

If we look at the 13-day period between August 13th and August 26th, here’s who the Phillies and Braves will be playing:

• Phillies: Reds (three games), Diamondbacks (four games), Padres (three games), Rays (two games)
• Braves: Nationals (three games), Marlins (three games), Orioles (three games), Yankees (two games)

Philly has its fair share of tough matchups against teams in contention for a playoff spot, but having the Dbacks in the midst of it all is a nice breather. That fourth game against Arizona is on August 26th, and it’s the start of a four-game set against them at Citizens Bank Park, followed by finishing off the month at home against Washington. But Atlanta, who has also caught a bit of momentum, has what should be a nice couple of weeks on tap while the Phillies and Mets get tested.

We’ve spilled some digital ink around these parts earlier in the year about how New York faced brutal parts of its schedule, but this is the big one. Considering the time of year, their recent play, and their place in the standings, this could either light a fire under them all for the stretch run or wipe them out. Let’s hope for the first possibility.