Series Preview: Mets Host Dodgers in Pivotal Series

Coming off their first three-game winning streak in weeks, the Mets welcome a new opponent to Citi Field this week. The Los Angeles Dodgers, holders of baseball’s second-best record (69-46), come into Queens as winners of four of their last five and with one of the league’s best lineups and rotations. They are currently the favorites to win the World Series, and that should come as no surprise.

On the hill, they’re led by three of the most dominant pitchers in the sport – Max Scherzer, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler. Not to mention Clayton Kershaw, who is currently on the 60-day IL.

Buehler has a 2.13 ERA with 152 strikeouts and will be in the running for the NL Cy Young award at the end of 2021. His ERA+ of 185 ranks third among National League pitchers.

In just the Mets luck, they’ll face those first three pitchers in their series this weekend. If that wasn’t enough, the Mets fly to LA next week to face these same Dodgers yet again.

It’s going to be the most important 13-game stretch for the Mets this season.

As for the Dodgers, they are more than just pitching. The lineup is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. Max Muncy leads the team in home runs (23) and OPS (.937). An incredible six qualifying Dodgers have posted an OPS+ over 130: Muncy, Mookie Betts (currently on the 10-day IL), AJ Pollock, Justin Turner (former Met), Will Smith, and Chris Taylor. That list is not even including Trea Turner (141 OPS+) who was recently acquired from the Nationals.

Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger, struggling this season with a .630 OPS, has posted a 1.088 OPS since July 31. That includes a eight game hit streak which just ended yesterday. But Bellinger is heating up at the right time, as the Dodgers look to take first place in the NL West away from the San Francisco Giants (who, by the way, the Mets also get to play two series against in the next two weeks).

As for the Mets, they are also heating up. The team just swept the struggling Nationals at Citi Field, including two nail biting one-run victories. The latter of those was in the series finale, as Pete Alonso hit a towering walk-off home run to complete the sweep. In the series opener, the Mets rallied from three runs down on multiple occasions in an eventual, thrilling 8-7 victory.

Of course, the Dodgers represent a much more difficult test than the Nationals. But wins are wins, and the Mets picking up a few victories following their most disappointing week of the season is reason to stay positive.

Friday, August 13, 2021: RHP Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.20 ERA) vs. LHP Julio Urias (13-3, 3.41 ERA)

The Mets send one of their best pitchers to the pitching mound in the series opener. Yes, Megill has struggled as of late, but on the season, he remains one of the best surprises of the Mets season. After posting a 2.04 ERA through his first seven starts of the season, Megill has allowed a season-high four runs in each of his past two starts. He still remains a strikeout-heavy pitcher, punching out at least five batters in all but three of his starts.

Despite the high run numbers, it should be noted in his August 2 start against the Marlins, he pitched five shutout innings after allowing a no-out, first inning grand slam. Facing this high-powered Dodgers offense will be a challenge, but it’s just the type of test Megill can use to his advantage in getting his rhythm back from July.

It helps to be backed up by the Dodgers offense, which is how Urias has amassed 13 wins thus far (tied for the NL lead) – a number Jacob deGrom could only dream of even in a Cy Young winning season. But as great as Urias is, the pure dominance of this Dodgers rotation slots Urias into the middle/lower half of this pitching staff – and depending on when Clayton Kershaw returns, Urias could be looking at the fourth spot in the playoff rotation.

Over his last three starts, he’s been his usual self, allowing just three earned runs in that span while striking out 17 batters. On August 1, he pitched five shutout innings against the lowly Diamondbacks. But even against the impressive Giants lineup, Urias allowed just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings pitched.

Saturday, August 14, 2021: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-7, 3.89 ERA) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (12-2, 2.13 ERA) 

Eventually, you figure that Taijuan Walker will once again find that pitching dominance that made him a 2021 All-Star. But ever since stepping onto the rubber in Denver, Walker has struggled in each start since. He’s 0-4 with a 9.86 ERA in five starts in the second half of this season. His latest outing was actually one of his best since the ASG though. Walker allowed three earned runs and walked just one batter in six innings in Philadelphia. Walker was one of baseball’s best pitchers through mid-July, and unfortunately has hit a wall since then, but he’s proven that he has the capability to dominate.

Hopefully, this is just a small bump in the road for Walker, and not a sign of an injury. The Mets are sticking with Walker in their rotation despite his struggles, and that alone should give him some confidence heading into his start vs. LA.

Walker Buehler is in the midst of one of the best seasons of this career, as he aims for his first ever Cy Young award. He’s seemed to get better and better as the season has progressed. In his last 15 games, he’s posted a 1.68 ERA. Over his last seven appearances, that ERA number has shrunk to 1.62.

Facing three great lineups in his three latest starts (at SF, vs. HOU, vs. LAA), Buehler allowed just two total earned runs, while striking out 21 batters. Against the division-leading Giants, Buehler tossed seven shutout innings while giving up just three hits. He ranks third in the NL for pitchers in WAR with a 5.0 mark.

Sunday, August 15, 2021: RHP Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 6.75 ERA vs. RHP Max Scherzer (9-4, 2.67 ERA) 

Carrasco is looking for his first win as Met. He’s yet to pitch more than 4 1/3 innings in any of his three starts this season, as he works his way back from an injury that kept him off the field until late July. In his last start, “Cookie” Carrasco left the game after just one inning when rain in Queens suspended the game. In that one inning (plus one batter in the second inning before the rain delay), Carrasco allowed four runs, including a home run to Juan Soto.

He’s struggled with the long ball thus far in his few starts, but make no mistake about it, Carrasco is a very good pitcher. His dominance in Cleveland while with the Indians was evident. It might take some time for Carrasco to get back to his usual self, but he’s a pitcher the Mets can certainly count on over the next two months as the team makes a run for the playoffs.

I’ll say it right away – Max Scherzer is not just one of the best pitchers in baseball this season – he’s one of the best pitchers baseball has seen in the 21st century. Three Cy Young Awards, seven top-five Cy Young finishes in voting, a World Series ring, two no-hitters. Now he joins a Dodgers club with their eyes aimed at a second consecutive World Series trophy, and he’s proven already why LA wanted to acquire him.

In his first start as a Dodger, Scherzer pitched seven innings of five hit, two earned run baseball. He walked just one batter and struck out ten. In his second start, one impacted by rain, Scherzer tossed 3 1/3 innings with no runs allowed, just three hits, and still struck out six batters in the short outing. Dodger fans will be predicting greatness from Scherzer in this start. After all, he’s facing a (mostly) struggling Mets lineup and he’s already thrown a no-no against the Mets. On October 3, 2015, Scherzer was just a fielding error away from a perfect game. He allowed no hits, no walks, and struck out an amazing 17 batters in nine innings. It was one of the best pitched baseball games of this century.

Prediction

While I’ve trended toward optimism in these series preview predictions as of late, I’m struggling to find a way the Mets do well in this series. The Dodgers are pitching their three best starting arms in this series and the Mets, while getting better the past few games, still remain one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. The Dodgers are just too good and are clicking in all phases of the game.

I really hope the Mets prove me wrong, but in the spirit of being realistic, I’m predicting a Dodgers sweep. Hopefully, the Mets can go into LA next week and get a few wins of their own, but for now, this is just too much of a mismatch to predict anything other than three consecutive Dodger victories.