Series Preview: Mets Head to Philadelphia With First Place On The Line

After an extremely disappointing series in Miami that saw the Mets drop three of four games, New York heads to the City of Brotherly Love for perhaps the most important series of the season thus far. Starting Friday night, the Mets will take on the Phillies in a three-game set that could determine the balance of power in the National League East.

Currently, the Mets hold a very slim 1/2 game lead over the Phillies. That lead was as large as five games in late July, but since then, the Mets have dropped four of five contests. Meanwhile, the Phillies just completed a four-game sweep of the Nationals in D.C. Although the two teams are trending in complete opposite directions, the Mets do still remain in first place – as they have since early May.

The story of the Mets lately has been their offense. In their past 12 games, the team is 4-8, but have only scored 2.6 runs per game. The pitching has been far from excellent too. In that same 12 game span, the Mets have allowed at least six runs in four of those games.

New acquisition Javier Baez has hit two homers with the Mets thus far, but he also became the first Met yesterday to strike out five times in a game in over 25 years. Meanwhile, slugger Michael Conforto remains unable to find his way out a year-long slump. His average remains below the mendoza line at .199.

Jacob deGrom remains on the injured list, and a recent setback in his recovery now means the Mets ace won’t return until at least September. The pitching has been rocky as well, with the bullpen compiling for a negative 2.8 WAR this year.

The Phillies, whom the Mets have not played since late June, are getting hot at the right time. Bryce Harper is making a serious case for himself to be considered for NL MVP honors. In 88 games this year, he is hitting .305/.417/.563 with 18 home runs, 56 walks, and 12 stolen bases. Rhys Hoskins is also have superb power production in 2021, blasting 24 homers for a 127 OPS+.

Former Met Zack Wheeler is also a name to watch in the NL Cy Young race. In his second season with the Phillies, Wheeler is 9-6 with a 2.57 ERA and 170 strikeouts. His 5.7 WAR leads all National League players (both hitters and pitchers), while his 170 strikeouts lead the NL as well.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia’s Opening Day starter, is having a surprising down year. His 4.49 ERA ranks third among qualifying Phillies starters. He does still rank top-five in the NL though for strikeouts, with 152 on the season.

During the Phillies current five-game win streak, their offense has scored at least five runs in each game. In four of those wins, the offense put up at least seven runs on the board. In yesterday’s win against Washington, the Phillies scored four runs in the top of the ninth inning to comeback from a 5-3 deficit entering the frame.

Although the season is far from over, the fortunes of the Mets season could very well change this weekend. Starting a new winning streak and getting on a roll before their toughest stretch of the schedule may just be what the Mets need to remain on top of the division. However, if the offense continues to falter and Philadelphia takes charge this weekend, this may just be the beginning of the end for the Mets.

We all remember what happened in 2007, when the Phillies made one of the most unlikely late-season runs in baseball history. Hopefully for the Mets sake, 2021 has a different ending to the story.

Friday, August 6, 2021: RHP Marcus Stroman (7-10, 2.80 ERA vs. RHP Kyle Gibson (7-3, 2.86 ERA) 

Despite the losing record (we’ve learned by now that W-L record means nothing, right?), Marcus Stroman has arguably been the Mets best pitcher all season. He is the only starter on the team to qualify for the ERA title, which he currently ranks eighth in among NL pitchers. His 2.80 ERA and 101 strikeouts have needed in a rotation that otherwise has seen most of their top arms go down with injuries.

Stroman has been the epitome of consistency for the entire season. He has not landed on the injured list at all, something most Met pitchers unfortunately have seen happen at some point in 2021. Stroman’s best start of the season occurred recently, on July 21 in Cincinnati. Over eight scoreless innings, Stroman allowed just one hit and one walk, while striking out seven batters. In his last start, also against Cincinnati, Stroman had a rather tough night as he allowed four runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Acquired as a deadline acquisition from Texas, Kyle Gibson enters the Phillies rotation as one of their most important pitchers over these next two months. In his first start as a Phillie, Gibson allowed two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings, striking out five batters as well. Overall between his two teams this season, Gibson has a 2.86 ERA in 119 2/3 innings. His 154 ERA+ this season is a career high.

His best start of the season occurred in late June against the Royals. In five innings, Gibson allowed no runs, just two hits, walked only one batter, and struck out ten Royals. As a Ranger, Gibson had four starts this season in which he did not allow a run. In all four of those starts, he pitched at least 5 1/3 innings.

Now that he is a member of the Phillies, Gibson is playing in the National League for the first time in his career. Before Texas, he previously pitched for the Minnesota Twins from 2013-2019.

Saturday, August 7, 2021: RHP Tylor Megill (1-1, 2.68 ERA vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (5-3, 1.04 ERA) 

Although he is coming off his worst start of the season, rookie Tylor Megill has remained one of the best surprises for the Mets in 2021. His pitched eight games, posting a 2.68 ERA while striking out 43 batters. Megill’s changeup has been his most dominant offering. Although throwing the pitch just 22.7% of the time, his changeup has produced a 35.0% whiff rate. His fastball has just a 16.3% whiff rate, despite throwing that pitch more than twice as often.

In his last start against Miami, Megill allowed a grand slam all before recording an out in the first inning. The rest of the start would get better, as Megill went on to throw five innings of just those four runs. He also struck out four batters. In his previous two starts before the letdown against the Marlins, Megill had allowed just one earned run in 11 1/3 combined innings, with only seven hits allowed.

Ranger Suarez has pitched in 28 games for the Phillies this season, yet his last appearance was his first start of 2021. In that start against the Nationals, Suarez pitched three hitless innings, walking just one batter. He’s reached three innings of work in just three other games all year. Suarez has primarily been used for an inning or two in the late innings of ball games. He’s finished out 13 games for the Phillies this year, while recording four saves. Although Suarez has pitched just 43 1/3 innings this season, his 389 ERA+ is by far a career high.

Sunday, August 8, 2021: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-6, 3.86 ERA vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (9-6, 2.57 ERA)

Since making his first All-Star Game appearance, Walker has struggled mightily. In four starts since the mid-summer classic, Walker’s ERA stands at 12.00 in 15 innings, over four starts. In those starts, opposing batters are reaching base at a .456 clip against Walker, who before the break had a 2.50 ERA. However, after lasting just 1/3 of an inning in Pittsburgh on July 18, he’s pitched four, five, and 5 1/3 innings in his subsequent three starts.

Walker’s last start against the Phillies was one of his better appearances of the season. On June 25, Walker allowed three hits and one run, while striking out five batters and walking one in five innings. His last start at Citizens Bank Park was on May 1. The Mets would go on to win 5-4, but Walker allowed four runs and seven hits in six innings.

Where would the Phillies be without Zack Wheeler this season? The team’s new ace has absolutely dominated in 2021. In seven different starts, Wheeler has gone at least six innings while allowing no runs. One of those starts was a three hit, eight strikeout masterpiece of a shutout against the Brewers. One notable trend of Wheeler’s season has been his ability to strikeout batters on almost all of his pitch types. Wheeler’s four-seam fastball, slider, sinker, and curveball all have a put-away percentage of at least 20.0%.

In his last start against his former team, Wheeler pitched seven innings, allowed four hits, two walks, no runs, and struck out eight batters. One of Wheeler’s worst starts of the season actually occurred the last time he faced the Mets in Philly. On May 1, he mirrored Walker’s statline – allowing four runs and seven hits as well, in seven innings.

In four starts since the All-Star break, Wheeler has a 3.95 ERA with 25 strikeouts.

Prediction

This series is a must win for the Mets. In fact, I’ll say a sweep might be even necessary to really get momentum rolling again. Thankfully for the Mets, they have their two best pitchers at the moment lined up in this series (Stroman and Megill). In the third game, I think the Mets have something to prove against their former teammate Wheeler, as does Walker, who needs a major turnaround in this start.

The Phillies just swept four-games in D.C. They’re playing a bit over their heads right now though. Despite stellar offense, they are due for some regression. The pitching has allowed five, four, five, and six runs over their past four games. In most series, that does not equate to a sweep. This offense will cool down against the trio of Met arms this weekend.

Call it a bold prediction, call it unrealistic, but the Mets always tend to play well in late-season games in Philadelphia.

The Mets leave Philly with a three-game sweep, get back on their feet, and head into a new week with a 3.5 game lead over the Phillies. At that point, the Braves may have even jumped into second place.

The sentiment is down now surrounding the Mets, but this is the type of matchup the team needs to get back to their early season winning ways. NL East rivalry, three proven arms on the hill. Time to right the ship. Break out the brooms. A sweep is very much in the cards.