3 Up, 3 Down: Mets Spiral Continues With Series Loss To Marlins

The Mets are just a half-game up on the Phillies in the NL East after losing three-of-four games to the Miami Marlins this week.

All four games this series were decided by three runs or less, which seems to be the Mets’ mantra this season. They don’t really get blown out, but they don’t blow anyone out, either. That causes plenty of nail biters and late-inning threats that never totally come to fruition.

They’re now 56-52 and have the exact same number of wins at the Phillies, who the Mets are going to play on the road for three games this weekend. After this series, the Mets could have relinquished their NL East lead, which they’ve had for about three months now, or they can shake their recent 4-8 stretch and start building back their division lead.

But first, let’s look at went right and wrong during the Marlins series.

3 Up

Loup There It Is

We’ve moved from “Aaron Loup is one of the best relievers the Mets have this year” to “Aaron Loup IS the best reliever the Mets have this year.”

After two more scoreless innings against the Marlins, here are Aaron Loup’s overall stats on the year: 36 IP (31 G), 1.25 ERA (1.69 FIP), 0.97 WHIP, 40 K, 7 BB, 317 ERA+

And here’s Aaron Loup post-All-Star break: 8 IP (6 G), 0.00 ERA (1.17 FIP), 0.875 WHIP, 6 K, 1 BB

He’s been more effective, somehow, after a sub-2.00 ERA in the first half.

Loup is also 90th percentile and above with his: barrel percentage (99th), xSLG (93rd), xwOBA (92nd), xERA (92nd) and walk percentage (91st), per Statcast. His changeup, which he throws just under 10 percent of the time, has been a great (wait for it) change up to his fastball and cutter. He has a 50 percent whiff percentage on the pitch and has allowed just one hit on the 52 changes he’s thrown.

Three of his five earned runs on the year came during a four-day stretch in May. He’s been just about perfect outside of that. His 1.5 fWAR is tied for seventh among all relievers. He’s been one of the best $3 million spent in baseball.

Michael Conforto Is Hitting It Hard

After a brutal July, where Michael Conforto slashed just .171/.232/.354, the right fielder earned a benching by Luis Rojas to start the Marlins series.

Rojas had said for weeks he liked the way Conforto was approaching at-bats and liked his swing–he just wasn’t getting the results. Sunday, the manager was a little less confident and said it looked like Conforto needed to work on some stuff in the cage while not worrying about being in the lineup. So Rojas sat him Monday, but it seemed to provide somewhat of a spark for the impending free agent.

He went 3-for-12 and three walks this series, and he is hitting the ball harder–and more square–than he has at any point this season.

So far in August’s five games, Conforto has his highest barrel percentage (11.1 percent) and hard-hit percentage (44.4 percent) in any month. Granted, it’s only about 15 percent of the games he’ll play in August, but he’s passed the eye test and the metrics test with how he’s seeing and hitting the ball. He hasn’t struck out at all so far this month.

It’s been a nightmare of a year for the 28-year-old, but a solid final two months will career his free agent prospects (and the team) a long way.

Rich Hill Gets Going As A Met

Rich Hill struggled his first two starts with the Mets, giving up three runs at the end of each of his first two five-inning appearances. Thursday was different, though, as Hill held strong through another five innings (more on that later) as just one unearned run crossed the plate.

The 41-year-old, known almost exclusively by this site’s editor as Dick Mountain, allowed just four base runners Thursday. One of them scored after a Conforto flub and Miguel Rojas steal allowed the run to score on a sac fly.

Despite his lack of depth into games, a five-inning, one-run outing is just about all the Mets could ask for from Hill. Ideally, it’d come in the middle of a stretch where other Met starters would be going deeper into games (Hill was tied for the longest outing by a starter this series), but you’ll take (what should’ve been) five scoreless from the lefty any day. The Mets will need more starts like today from Hill down the stretch.

3 Down

The Javier Baez Experience

The Javier Báez Experience has… not been very fun. Or it’s gone exactly how we should’ve expected it? Or both?

Báez, who first debuted Saturday after the Mets acquired him an hour and change ahead of the trading deadline, has four hits in 24 at-bats. Two of them are home runs. He’s also struck out 10 times and walked (surprisingly) once, though that ratio could be a little more even had Baez not swung at a handful of 2-0 and 3-0 pitches outside of the zone.

But that’s what you get with Báez. He’ll hit a go-ahead dinger one night then strikeout five times less than 24 hours later. Through all that? His wRC+ is just about average at 97 despite the up-and-down swings of his plate appearances. He was hitting fourth for a handful of games with the team, and he batted fifth on Thursday. Once the team is fully healthy and guys are playing every day, Báez will likely slot into the sixth or seventh hole, which feels a bit more comfortable with his 45 percent chase rate.

Scoring With Bases Loaded

The Mets haven’t been great at scoring runs with the bases loaded all year (20th in runs, 24th in batting average), but this series with the Marlins was particularly frustrating.

The team had nine at-bats with the bases loaded over the four games. They had one hit–a single in the final frame of the series that brought the Mets’ 4-1 deficit by a run. Albert Almora Jr. grounded out next and ended the game, securing their 1-for-9 series with the bases loaded. They were 8-for-43 (fucking FOURTY THREE) with runners in scoring position.

The 14 runs they scored this series could’ve easily been 20. It’s one thing to have a rough series when men are in scoring position. It’s another for it to compound when a couple of timely hits with the bases loaded probably means they win the series 3-1 rather than lose it 1-3 as the team drops to a just a half-game ahead of the Phillies in the NL East.

Starters Getting Deep

Starting pitching was the stronghold of the Mets’ first half success. The team’s starters pitched to a 2.98 ERA pre-All-Star break, good for second in the majors.

That has since fallen off a cliff.

Since July 16, the first game after the break, Mets starters have a 5.71 ERA–26th in the league. That’s largely inflated by Taijuan Walker (12.00 ERA in four starts) and Jerad Eickhoff (15.43 ERA in seven innings), but guys like Rich Hill (4.20 ERA in three starts and 15 innings) and Carlos Carrasco (3.24 ERA in two starts and 8.1 innings) aren’t giving the Mets much depth now, either.

The Mets starters (excluding Aaron Loup who was an opener during a doubleheader) as a whole are averaging just 4.2 innings per start in the second half.