Considering where we were back in May, Major League Baseball has to be happy with where they are at in the season. They endured plenty of speed bumps along the way, but were able to make it through their 60-game season and are now reaping the benefits of nationally-televised playoff baseball.
While the owners around the game were able to salvage some of their lost earnings, the economy of MLB has not been this dire in some time. The league just endured a regular season with no fans and are uncertain if fans can return in 2021. Cardboard cutouts are the embodiment of lost revenue and the owners hope those cutouts are replaced by their human counterparts next season.
The problem is that there is so much unknown when it comes to the Coronavirus. Some epidemiologists project a second wave of the virus hitting this winter that could create more shutdowns around the country. While baseball will have more time to wait this out with their regularly scheduled offseason, the trickle-down effect could be a lack spending in free agency.
When asked about star free agent catcher J.T. Realmuto over the weekend, Phillies owner John Middleton spoke to his concern about lost revenue and how it would prohibit them from being able to sign a player of his caliber.
“Can you tell me what the governor and the mayor of Philadelphia are going to allow us to have next year in the way of fans?” said Middleton, “Because if you do, you know something that I don’t. So I have no idea what we’re going to be allowed. Obviously, that will determine our revenues, and revenues determine what you can do and what you can’t do.”
With Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen all set to make over $20 million next season, the Phillies are already sure to have a payroll north of $100 million before even making a decision on Realmuto. Since he can’t count on the gates being open and the “Phandemic Krew” being allowed into the ballpark, Middleton is hesitant to bring in another high-salary player.
Even if there is fans next season, it is highly unlikely that they will be welcoming in sell-out crowds next summer. It’s likely that teams will be able to have limited capacity crowds, but as Middleton notes, it depends on local government and state ordinances. This could create a lack of balance around baseball as some teams will have a source of revenue that other’s won’t be able to enjoy.
In Theo Epstein’s end of the year press conference for the Cubs, he was quoted saying that uncertainty “rules the day” regarding the pandemic and the loss of revenue around baseball. This could create a free agent market where players struggle to find the contracts they have been looking for.
This all becomes interesting for the Mets, as their new owner could potentially capitalize on a buyer’s market when spending during his first offseason running the team.
Unlike some of the other owners around baseball, Steve Cohen is not reliant on the Mets to make money. With a reported net worth over $14 billion, Cohen is better positioned to absorb losses in the short-term than some of his competition. This could create an opportunity to sign favorable deals that can help the Mets into the future.
Because of baseball’s uncertain economy over the next few years, it is fair to assume that team’s will prefer to sign heavily back-loaded or even deferred contracts this offseason. By going against the grain and spending more money upfront, Cohen could find great value in free agency.
Take Realmuto for example. If team’s are offering him seven-year deals with all the money at the back-end of the contract, there could be an opportunity to sign him to a high AAV three-year deal. This would allow Realmuto to hit free agency again in a few years after the pandemic has passed and a new CBA has been ratified.
For the Mets, a shorter deal for Realmuto could open the door for Francisco Alvarez to assume the role in a few years if he develops into a premier backstop.
This is only one example of how a buyer’s market could benefit the Mets this offseason. There are certainly plenty of avenues to improve, but if prices are down and good players are available, there is a chance the Mets could find great value through free agency.
