Following back-to-back award-winning seasons, Jacob deGrom was hoping to carry his outstanding results into this season and help lead the New York Mets back to the postseason for the first time since the 2016 campaign. Unfortunately, only one of those things has occurred in 2020.
With the regular season winding down, the Mets are still sitting on the outside of the playoff picture, currently two and a half games shy of the second Wild Card spot. Considering they’ll need to jump over four teams to secure the final playoff spot, there’s a very good chance they’ll fail to play meaningful baseball in October for the fourth-straight season.
While the 2020 campaign has certainly been disappointing, especially for the cardboard cutouts, the same can’t be said for the two-time Cy Young award winner, as he’s producing one of the best statistical performances of his entire career. That said, it seems like he may not be able to capture the prestigious award for the third season in a row, which would’ve made him just the third pitcher in league history to accomplish that feat.
As it stands right now, it appears that Yu Darvish, Corbin Burnes, and deGrom are currently the favorites to finish in the top-three in the running for this season’s National League Cy Young award.
Among those three hurlers, deGrom currently owns the second-lowest ERA (2.14), FIP (1.99), FIP- (46), OPP AVG (.183), walk rate (6.5%), LD rate (19.9%), and is tied for the second-highest fWAR rating (2.6), according to FanGraphs.com. In addition, the 32-year old has also produced the lowest xFIP (2.43), xFIP- (55), WHIP (0.92), and has generated the highest strikeout rate (38.2%) as well.
Depending on the right-hander’s health, he’ll likely have one more opportunity to improve these metrics even further, which could come on Saturday against the Washington Nationals. But even if he falls short of capturing the league’s top pitcher award, the three-time All-Star should still receive a ton of credit for his stellar performance during this unprecedented season.
Considering deGrom has been forced to carry the load without teammates Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman, along with Rick Porcello‘s and Michael Wacha‘s struggles, the veteran arm deserves plenty of praise and respect for what he’s been able to accomplish in 2020. Ironically, the former ninth-round pick has taken his game to another level this season and he still might not win the Cy Young award.
Over his 11 starts, deGrom has compiled 63 innings, producing career-bests in xFIP, WHIP, OPP AVG, xAVG (.198), LD rate, and has tied his lowest ERA. Additionally, the 2014 NL Rookie of the Year award winner has also recorded his highest strikeout rate, whiff rate (41.7%), chase rate (35.1%), and he’s even improved his weak-contact rate by 0.9%, which is notable because he’s not known for inducing soft contact.
After winning two-consecutive Cy Young awards, most experts believed the Florida native could be considered a finished product and almost no one was expecting him to improve his repertoire during his age-32 season. Well, the 6-foot-4 hurler has shocked the baseball world yet again, proving why he’s arguably the top pitcher in the major leagues and the state of New York as well.
While his fastball averaged the third-highest velocity (96.9 mph) in the majors last season, deGrom decided he could do even better and take his heater to another level in 2020. And he’s done exactly that.
Though the hard-throwing righty still sits third in average velocity (98.5 mph), his ability to increase the average spin rate against his four-seamer by 91 RPMs has increased its speed by 1.6 mph, which has allowed it to consistently touch triple digits throughout this season.
As a result of these adjustments, the Stetson product has generated a .182 AVG (down .037 from 2019), .195 xAVG (.028 decrease), .295 SLG (.105 decrease), .329 xSLG (.076 decrease), .227 wOBA (.065 decrease), .247 xwOBA (.051 decrease), 44.2% strikeout rate (16.3% increase), 38.8% whiff rate (11.7% increase), along with a 34.7% in zone whiff rate (10.2% increase) against his four-seamer.
Despite the success he’s enjoyed with his fastball, deGrom has endured a few low points this summer and they’ve prevented him from reaching his full potential. While the potential Hall of Famer has historically been able to work out of trouble with runners in scoring position, he hasn’t replicated that same success and has struggled to throw first-pitch strikes this season.
Over the last two seasons, the superstar hurler produced a 2.37 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .163 OPP AVG, .209 wOBA, 33% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 44.1% GB rate, 35.2% FB rate, and a 30.2% hard-hit rate through 84.0 combined innings with runners in scoring positon. Additionally, he’s also recorded a 65.3% first-pitch strike rate during that timeframe.
In comparison, deGrom has created a 3.00 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, .231 OPP AVG, .286 wOBA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, 37.9% GB rate, 44.8% FB rate, along with a 37.9% hard-hit rate over 10 2/3 innings pitched with runners in scoring position this season. As for his first-pitch strike rate, he’s seen it drop down to 58.5%, which isn’t alarming but it’s still not as high as it’s been in recent seasons.
For a pitcher of deGrom’s standards, he certainly can’t be pleased with his performance during run-scoring situations, as he’d likely be leading the NL Cy Young conversation if not for these average results. Still, there’s no denying this was another dominating season for No. 48 and he would’ve likely earned his fourth trip to the All-Star Game if it wasn’t canceled by the COVID-19 pandemic.
With two guaranteed seasons and two options (one player and one club) left on his current contract, deGrom’s tenure in Queens is far from over and it seems like he’ll be able to maintain his dominance on the mound into his mid-30s or even later. Needing to take advantage of his All-Star form, the Mets must surround him with enough talent this offseason that he can actually help them sustain a long playoff run in 2021 and not finish short once again.
