If you had to pick one feel-good story about the New York Mets this year, what would it be why would you choose Dominic Smith’s breakout?
Alright, that may not be what you’d choose, but that’s definitely my selection. It’s amazing how baseball works, though, doesn’t it? At the start of last year when Pete Alonso was named the starting first baseman and ran away with it, seeing an every-day opportunity for Smith was difficult, even as he continued trying to make himself into a serviceable outfielder.
Fast-forward about one-and-a-half years later, and who knows what kind of shape the Mets would be in without his elite production. Before playing in Wednesday’s game against the Miami Marlins, Smith ranked among the top five in baseball for both slugging percentage (.738) and wRC+ (194) among hitters with at least 70 plate appearances in 2020.
After collecting another two hits, his most current stats prior to Thursday’s finale against Miami are even more impressive. Through 77 plate appearances, Smith is slashing .323/.403/.754 with six home runs, 21 RBI, all good for a 200 wRC+. His 1.0 fWAR is already more than the 0.8 he accumulated in 197 plate appearance in 2019. Plus, he’s been so productive that the number of hits he’s added to his ledger (21) is exactly the same as the number of teammates he’s driven in.
With all this in mind, I felt the need to dig in to see what exactly he’s been excelling at during this breakout. All of the usual things are there — he’s making more contact within the strike zone, which has led to better quality of contact. His walk rate has gone up, while his strikeout rate has gone done when compared to last year. There were two things in particular that I was curious about, and the results were eye-popping.
(The following 2020 stats are current through Tuesday’s action, unless otherwise noted.)
He’s Crushing Fly Balls
One of the obvious differences in Smith’s approach when comparing it to last year is the frequency in which he’s hitting fly balls. After putting balls in the air at a 37.1% clip in 2019, that number has gone up to 45.8%. That’s also been paired with a 43.8% hard-hit rate (36.8% last year), which makes sense since his infield-fly rate is at 0.0% (8.2% in ’19).
Smith’s ISO at the end of 2019 was a healthy .243, but still, even with the smaller sample size so far this season, the jump up to a .431 ISO is enough to wonder what the heck is going on. The thing is that when Dom hits fly balls in 2020, he’s crushing them. His preposterous 2.345 OPS and 473 wRC+ for that specific batted-ball event is head-and-shoulders above what he accomplished in 2019 (1.388 OPS and 248 wRC+).
There are a couple of big differences taking place: one being the direction in which he’s hitting these fly balls, and the second being his quality of contact.
That pull rate isn’t necessarily a huge change, but it’s on track to being a single-season career-high mark. That oppo rate would also be the first time he’s finished a season with it being below 40.0%. The most drastic change — and biggest difference maker — is his quality of contact. The shift in soft-hit rate is significant, but the fact that all of it (and then some) has gone straight to his hard-hit rate is what really jumps off the page.
Again, making more contact within the strike zone helps make all of this possible.
These Two Pitches Are Getting Punished
For someone who’s experiencing as much success as Smith has, it’s understandable that he’s crushing most pitches. Prior to Wednesday’s win, he registered at least a 130 wRC+ on four of the five pitches he’s seen at least 30 times.
The two pitches that stand out here, though, are the ones he’s seen most often: four-seam fastballs and sliders. Here’s how his ISO and wRC+ against these two offerings have progressed from last year:
I know, I know — small sample size. But again, the jumps in these numbers are too great to ignore right now. A solid portion of Smith’s extra-base hits have come off one of these two pitches, and it’s always a good idea to have a good handle on the pitches opposing hurlers are tossing your way the most frequently.
Interestingly enough, the one pitch Dom hasn’t had any success against so far in 2020 is the cutter. Heading into Wednesday’s game, he owned a 44.4% strikeout rate and a -50 wRC+ against it after posting a 20.0% strikeout rate and 258 wRC+ in virtually the same number of pitches faced last year.
Based on how he’s performed overall, though, it seems like he’s figuring out a way to move past those struggles just fine. It’s been fun watching Smith have so much success, and it’ll be equally as fun to see where he finishes by the end of September if he can keep some semblance of this pace going.
