New York Mets fans get an opportunity to relive Game 5 of the 2015 National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers today, which is fun. It doesn’t hold a candle to what today was actually supposed to be, though: Opening Day.
As if not being able to see new Mets baseball wasn’t already bad enough, news broke earlier this week about Noah Syndergaard needing Tommy John Surgery. Coincidentally enough, the surgery is scheduled to take place today.
Talk about twisting the knife when it’s already in our back, right?
Obviously, losing Syndergaard for the 2020 season is a big blow to a rotation that was already set to take the field without Zack Wheeler. The eventual production of this group won’t be what projections were originally expecting, and while this puts New York at a disadvantage, its playoff odds are still not shabby. Although the Atlanta Braves leapfrogged the Mets with a 58.9% chance of reaching the postseason, manager Luis Rojas‘ squad still has 43.1% odds of playing October (and/or November) baseball.
Without Thor taking the hill every five days, though, that means there’s some slack to be picked up if they’re going to be a playoff contender. Syndergaard’s other rotation mates will have work to do, but this injury news has instantly made the bullpen’s eventual performance even more important than it already was supposed to be.
Photo by Ed Delany, MMO
Trio of Bounce Backs A Necessity
The Mets’ bullpen is projected to be one of the best in baseball this upcoming season, and their cumulative projected fWAR is so high because Edwin Diaz is expected to return to form after a dreadful 2019. Furthermore, FanGraphs is projecting that Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Dellin Betances will produce approximately 180 of the bullpen’s 499 total innings, which susses out to about 36.0% of the overall workload.
As we all know, Familia endured an equally nightmarish campaign in ’19, while Betances only tossed 0.2 big-league innings amidst an injury-plagued season.
All three are expected to be healthy and ready to roll once baseball activities resume in an official capacity, which is good because the Mets will need them to be firing on all cylinders. Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom were the most likely hurlers to consistently get deep into ballgames, so with one of them gone, this trio may be handling the final innings in some permutation more often than originally expected.
Lugo and Gsellman are Even Bigger X-Factors
It was no debate — Seth Lugo was not only the Mets’ best reliever last season, but his 2.2 fWAR also finished within the top five of all qualified relief pitchers in baseball. New York does have some depth behind its new-look rotation, but I can’t help not thinking about how this series of events could impact what Lugo does in 2020 and where he does it.
The right-hander has been wanting another shot as a starter. If more injuries hit the rotation once things start back up — which is always a possibility — the Mets could seriously consider plucking either Lugo or Robert Gsellman from the bullpen and have one (or both) of them join the starting staff.
However, the thing is that while the relief corps is anticipated to be stronger as a unit, these two have been irreplaceable cogs for that area of the roster. After all, Lugo and Gsellman are both among the top-10 when it comes to innings thrown by relievers since the start of 2018.
Supporting Cast Must Step Up
If New York has to consider pulling Lugo or Gsellman into the rotation, they must be able to do it without cratering the bullpen’s production. The trio of Diaz, Familia, and Betances will have a huge impact on this potential decision, but that’s why the bullpen’s supporting cast is also going to be even more important.
So, dudes like Brad Brach and Justin Wilson need to be dependable, along with the guys who will likely land between the majors and Triple-A throughout the season. Some that come to mind include Walker Lockett, Daniel Zamora, Paul Sewald, Tyler Bashlor, and Drew Smith.
There was never not going to be pressure on the Mets’ bullpen to perform in 2020. However, a top-performing rotation would’ve been helpful in keeping the relievers a little more fresh. It’s not that the starting staff can’t be an asset without Syndergaard included, but it’ll likely mean Rojas will need to depend on his bullpen either consistently meeting or exceeding expectations more than he was expecting at the start of Spring Training.
