With all things considered for the New York Mets’ eventual fate in 2020, it can be argued that the starting rotation’s performance is the biggest x-factor.
Yes, New York needs to score runs to win ballgames and the bullpen needs to hold up its end of the bargain by not blowing so many leads. However, a top-notch starting rotation has been the basis of competitive Mets baseball since Sandy Alderson began rebuilding the organization at the start of the last decade. While the organization ultimately fell short of expectations during Mickey Callaway‘s short tenure as manager, one of the good things he oversaw was a return to prominence for the starting staff after a disastrous 2017 campaign.
That year led to the rotation producing a cumulative fWAR of just 7.9, which ranked in the bottom third of baseball. The following two years led to consecutive top-three performances when looking at fWAR (18.0 in ’18 and 19.7 in ’19). Having back-to-back National League Cy Young performances from Jacob deGrom helps the overall bottom line, but it’s not as if absolutely no one also contributed to these numbers (even if it was mostly Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler).
There’s another new manager and another new pitching coach overseeing this talented group that includes slightly different personnel with Wheeler now in Philly. The expectations haven’t changed, though.
According to FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, the Mets’ rotation is expected to be the second-best in baseball for the upcoming season with a cumulative fWAR of 18.6. This projection has the usual suspects carrying the majority of the workload: deGrom (6.1), Syndergaard (4.6), and Marcus Stroman (3.3). It also includes Rick Porcello producing 2.1 fWAR of his own and Steven Matz pitching in (literally) another 1.8 (this is obviously making the assumption that he beats out Michael Wacha for the final rotation spot).
If the Mets do end up getting four starting pitchers to each produce at least 2.0 fWAR, it’d be the first time that happened for them since 2015-16, when it happened in consecutive years. However, what would really distinguish this group among some of the best rotations we’ve seen in recent memory revolves around the cumulative fWAR they fell just shy of last season — 20.0.
I looked back at a couple of different time periods to see how common it was for a rotation to produce at least that number, and as one can imagine, it’s not a club that just anyone can join.
Over the past decade, there have been just seven clubs that have reached that plateau, including just two in the Senior Circuit (2011 Philadelphia Phillies and the 2019 Washington Nationals). If we expand the sample all the way back to the 2000 season, the total goes up to only 13 clubs, with three more National League clubs joining in.
While the Mets have lost a significant rotation contributor in Wheeler (regardless of what BVW says), getting over the hump from 2019’s 19.7 cumulative fWAR to 20.0 and beyond isn’t out of the realm of this group’s possibilities. It’s only Spring Training, but virtually all of the rotation is looking good at this point, and the top is looking as strong as ever.
DeGrom has outperformed his fWAR projections in each of the last two years, and there’s no reason at this point to believe he can’t do it again. Syndergaard has a good shot at outperforming his 4.6 fWAR projection because he dealt with his own struggles at times last year and still racked up 4.4 by the time October rolled around. Stroman had to adjust after arriving in Flushing, but he’s either met or exceeded his 3.3 projected fWAR four times since debuting in 2014. The back end of the rotation — whomever ends up taking up residence there — will hopefully have the benefit of an above-average bullpen, preventing them from consistently getting overextended later in ballgames.
Even with the change in personnel, New York has a great chance of remaining as one of baseball’s most successful rotations and could even get themselves in exclusive territory by surpassing 20.0 cumulative fWAR. Although there are a number of playoff and World Series teams among the groups mentioned above, only one of them took home a trophy: last year’s Nationals.
So, it’ll be cool for the Mets’ rotation to distinguish themselves in this way and then distinguish themselves even further by actually attaining October glory in the process. Right? Right.
