For the second time in a little over a week, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will wage battle to jockey for a potential wild card berth as the two rivals open a three game series at Citi Field. The Mets took two of three on their last visit to Philadelphia and hope to do at least that well at home as time runs short with each team having only 23 games remaining as of Friday.
The Mets are 6-10 against the Phils this year meaning Philadelphia will win the season series versus the Mets for the first time since 2011. New York trails the Phils by one game in the NL East and are five games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second wild card.
The Mets (71-68) are coming off a 4-2 road trip and will begin their longest home stand of the year on Friday, a 10-game stint that features visits from the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Los Angeles Dodgers as well as the Phils. New York is 37-27 at home and although they have lost their last six games in Flushing, they have generally played well at Citi Field this year. Of their 23 games remaining, 17 are at home as the Mets have but one road trip left this year (at Colorado and at Cincinnati). In addition to the teams coming to New York for this home stand, the Mets will conclude their season at home against the Miami Marlins for four games and the Atlanta Braves for three.
The Philadelphia Phillies (72-67) have a much tougher road ahead of them. They only play nine of their last 23 games at Citizens Bank Park. After the Mets series, they go home to play the Braves (4 games) and the Boston Red Sox for a pair. Then they travel to Atlanta (3), Cleveland (3) and Washington (5), before finishing up with three against the Marlins at home.
The Phils are 5-5 in their last 10 games. They are under .500 on the road sporting a 31-36 record. Philadelphia is coming off a four-game split at Cincinnati as they conclude their current road trip in New York. The Phils have been treading water since the All-Star break, compiling a 25-25 record in the second half. Spotty pitching, both starting and relief, has contributed to the Phils playing .500 ball since mid-July. They haven’t won consecutive series since July 19-24 against Pittsburgh and Detroit.
The Phils rank 11th in team pitching in the NL tied with the Milwaukee Brewers with a 4.61 team ERA. Only Pittsburgh, Colorado and Miami have a higher ERA than the Phils. Their BAA is .263 with only the Pirates at .265 having a higher average. Phillies ace Aaron Nola, unsurprisingly, leads the staff in all major categories. He has 12 wins, a 3.63 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and has struck out 200 batters. His 200 Ks are fifth most in the National League. The Mets will not be facing Nola in this series, certainly a potential break in the Mets favor. Closer Hector Neris leads the team with 23 saves, ninth most in the NL.
As far as offense, the Phillies rank eighth in the NL, having scored 678 runs in 139 games, an average of 4.9 runs per game. Their team BA is .248. As an aside, the Mets have slowly crawled up the NL leader board in team offense ranking sixth having scored 678 runs with a team BA of .258 and a .767 team OPS. Bryce Harper, although not having the year that many experts projected, still leads the team in home runs with 30, runs scored with 86, and RBIs with 100. He is only hitting .255 and is third in the NL in strike outs with 156. Jean Segura‘s .286 BA paces the Phils. After the Reds defeated the Phillies on Thursday, the Phils have a run differential of -8.
In team defense, the Phillies rank ninth in the NL having committed 80 errors. They have a .984 fielding percentage.
The Phillies are managed by Gabe Kapler. He succeeded Pete Mackanin on October 30, 2017, to become the 54th manager in Phillies history. Kapler had the second-most wins among Phillies managers historically after 100 games (56), and under Kapler, the 2018 team improved its end-of-season won-lost record by 14 games, to 80-82.
Friday, September 6: LHP Steven Matz vs RHP Zach Eflin 7:10 PM
2019 Stats: Matz 9-8 record, 4.04 ERA (4.50 FIP), 1.309 WHIP, 8.6Ks/9, 2.6 BB/9; Eflin 8-11 record, 4.33 ERA (4.72 FIP), 1.341 WHIP, 7.1 Ks/9, 2.5 BB/9
Friday’s start will be Zach Eflin’s fourth since returning from the bullpen. In his prior three outings, he’s pitched to a respectable 2.84 ERA. He credits his success to his pitch selection and throwing his sinker more which has been effective. He is 1-1 this year against the Mets and 3-4 lifetime with a 5.54 ERA. Last out versus the Mets, he pitched well, allowing only one run on three hits in a game the Phils won, 5-2.
Amed Rosario has done particularly well against Eflin hitting over .400 against the Phillies’ righthander.
Steven Matz has pitched well, especially at home, since being reinserted in the starting rotation after the All-Star break. In nine starts in the second half, Matz has gone 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA. He’ll be facing the Phils for the sixth time this year on Friday.
Last out on Saturday, Steven pitched well at Citizens Bank Park and picked up a win against Philadelphia. He allowed two earned-runs on seven hits in five innings pitched to notch his ninth victory. Lifetime, Matz is 2-4 against Philadelphia with a 5.82 ERA.
Maikel Franco is hitting .500 against Matz this year with two homers and five RBIs. Harper is swatting .346 with one home run and six RBIs.
Saturday, September 7: RHP Marcus Stroman vs LHP Drew Smyly 7:10 PM
2019 Stats: Stroman 7-12 record, 3.28 ERA (3.51 FIP), 1.227 WHIP, 8.8 Ks/9, 4.4 BB/9; Smyly 3-6 record, 6.65 ERA (5.20 FIP), 1.362 WHIP, 9.6 Ks/9, 3.1 BB/9
Drew Smyly was acquired from the Texas Rangers at the break and has not pitched particularly well for the Phillies. In his last six starts, he has a 6.23 ERA while allowing 10 home runs in 30 1/3 innings. Smyly pitched better in his last start against the Reds allowing one run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings. It was his first win since July 30. He last pitched against the Mets as a member of the Detroit Tigers in 2013 so most of the Mets will be facing him for the first time.
Marcus Stroman pitched his first quality start as a member of the Mets in his last outing which happened to be against the Phils on Sunday. He allowed two runs on seven hits in six innings pitched. Mickey Callaway commented after the game that it was Stroman’s best start as a Met. After allowing two runs in the second, Stroman settled down and pitched four shut-out innings before being relieved in the seventh. Even though the Mets lost the game, he kept the Mets in the game until the Phillies scored three in the eighth.
Sunday, September 8: RHP Noah Syndergaard vs. RHP Vince Velasquez 1:10 PM
2019 Stats: Syndergaard 10-7 record, 3.97 ERA (3.45 FIP), 1.182 WHIP, 9.1 Ks/9, 2.3 BB/9: Velasquez 6-7 record, 4.80 ERA (5.22 FIP), 1.349 WHIP, 9.8 Ks/9, 3.4 BB/9
Vince Velasquez, like Smyly, was relegated to the bullpen for about three months this season. Since returning to the rotation, Velasquez has pitched fairly well. Since July 24, he is 4-2 and if the clunker he had against Miami, where he gave up seven runs, is removed, his ERA over that stretch is 3.00.
Velasquez is 1-0 against the Mets this year and 2-4 lifetime with a 3.99 ERA. There was a good deal of friction between Velasquez and Kapler after the righthander’s last start as he was removed in the fourth after only throwing 67 pitches. Both parties emerged from the powwow happy with supposed hugs all around.
Noah Syndergaard showed resiliency as he bounced back from a career worst performance against the Cubs to stymie the Nationals on Monday. After allowing nine earned runs in three innings against Chicago, five days later he pitched seven scoreless innings with ten strikeouts to earn his 10th win. My full account of his performance against Washington is here.
Noah is 1-0 against the Phillies this year and 6-3 lifetime with a 3.97 ERA. If you discount the Cubs start, Syndergaard has pitched nine straight games allowing three runs or less. He said he worked on his mechanics after the Cubs fiasco and it seems to have worked.
This year, Rhys Hoskins is hitting .417 against Noah with two homers and three RBIs. Franco is stroking .348 with four RBIs.
Prediction: Two old friends battling one another for possible playoff positioning…ahhh September baseball. The Mets are coming off a resilient win over Washington and a nice series win over the Phils on a 4-2 road trip. Now they get the Phillies again, this time at home, where the Mets will be trying to snap a six game losing streak.
The Mets need, at worst, to take two out of three from Philadelphia. The Phillies are ripe to be had here as there is no Nola in this series, and even though they miss Jacob deGrom, the pitching match-ups still favor the Mets. Add that to the fact Philadelphia is only a .500 ball club for the better part of a month-and-a-half and the choice becomes clear. So the pick here is for New York to start its home stand on a right note, (right the ship at Citi Field), and take two of three from the Phillies.
