To say the upcoming series against the Washington Nationals is enormous might be an understatement.
The New York Mets (59-56) find themselves only a half a game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. The Philadelphia Phillies lost on Thursday to the San Francisco Giants and now have the same record as the Mets. The Phillies and Mets play each other at the end of the month.
First on the docket for the Mets are the Nationals as the two teams open a three-game set at Citi Field beginning on Friday. The Mets are 8-5 against Washington this year. The two teams will meet again for the last time in the regular season September 2-4 at Nationals Park. Recently some pundits have forecast that these two teams are likely to meet in the wild-card game, but there are 47 games yet to be played and the wild-card possibilities are many.
The last time these two teams met was perhaps the Mets high point of the season before the All-Star break as they swept the Nationals in a four-game set at Citi Field May 20-23. Since the All-Star break, the Mets are the talk of baseball, compiling the Major’s best record at 19-6. They have won 13 of their last 14 games and six in a row. During this span, they are averaging 5.8 runs per game, have smacked 26 home runs, are hitting .261 as a team and have a league best 2.55 ERA. The last time the Mets had a 14 game span like this was 29 years ago in June-July 1990.
The Washington Nationals (61-53), who currently hold the top wild-card spot in the NL, were dealt a blow before the first pitch of the series was even thrown. Their ace and three-time Cy Young Award winner, Max Scherzer, will not be available to face the Mets this series. Scherzer has spent the better part of the last month on the injured list with a back sprain. He returned to action for one start on July 25th, but went right back on the IL following the game. The Nationals organization had hoped that he would be ready for this series against the Mets, but Nationals manager Dave Martinez said to reporters on Wednesday, “We don’t want this to be an ongoing issue for him,” and that he would not appear again until he is 100%. The Nats did reshuffle their rotation for the series so their top remaining hurlers face the Mets.
The Nationals visit to Citi Field will complete a nine-game road trip with previous stops in Arizona and San Francisco. They are 4-2 currently on the trip coming off a three game sweep of the Giants. Prior to the sweep, the Nationals were a .500 team at 11-11 since the All-Star break. The Mets have made up five games in the standings on the Nats since the break.
Washington currently ranks sixth in the NL in offense with a .256 team batting average. Their run differential is +46 which ranks fourth in the NL. They have scored 568 runs in 114 games played which averages to just under five runs per game. Third basemen Anthony Rendon leads the Nats in most offensive categories including batting average, which is .314 as of Thursday, runs scored with 80, RBIs with 87 and 24 home runs. Rendon’s 87 RBIs is the fifth highest in the NL. Shortstop Trea Turner is third in the National League in stolen bases with 23.
Should note that Rendon left the Nationals game on Wednesday with a sore toe and former Met Asdrubal Cabrera came into the game to play third.
As far as pitching, the Nationals are 9th in the league with a 4.40 team ERA. They have a .248 BAA. Stephen Strasburg leads the Nats (and the NL) in wins with 14. Max Scherzer, despite the fact he’s been on the IL, still leads his team with a 2.41 ERA (which is second in the league) and strikeouts with 189 (which leads the league, and is seven more Ks than Jacob deGrom has). Scherzer also leads his team with a 0.99 WHIP. Sean Doolittle has 25 saves for the Nats which is fourth in the league.
In team defense, the National have committed 60 errors so far this year placing them seventh in the league in defense. They have a fielding percentage of .985.
Dave Martinez, 54, is in his second year of managing the Nationals. Martinez played for nine different teams in his playing career that spanned 16 seasons (1986-2001). He then coached Tampa Bay from 2008-2014. Prior to this he worked for the Rays in various capacities including as a spring training instructor. He then went onto become the bench coach for the Chicago Cubs under Joe Maddon. He was part of the 2016 World Championship season with Chicago.
When Dusty Baker failed to advance the Nationals past the NLDS in 2016 and 2017, losing in five games in each case, he was fired. Martinez was on the short-list of candidates and was hired to manage the Nationals on October 30, 2017. He is known as a manager who will try different things, whether it was to have Bryce Harper lead-off or to let Scherzer throw 121 pitches in an early season game.
Friday, August 9: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Stephen Strasburg 7:10 PM
2019 Stats: Stroman 6-11 record, 3.03 ERA (3.51 FIP), 1.227 WHIP, 7.1 Ks/9, 2.5 BB/9; Strasburg 14-5 record, 3.72 ERA (3.15 FIP), 1.080 WHIP, 10.8 Ks/9, 2.2 BB/9
An intriguing match-up to start things off, pitting the NL leader in wins against a newcomer from the American League with a fine ERA and true potential.
Stephen Strasburg had won 7 straight starts, and 10 of 11 before what was perhaps his worst outing of the year last-out against the Arizona Diamondbacks. In 4.2 innings against the Diamondbacks, he allowed 9 runs on 9 hits, raising his ERA nearly a half a run in the process. Friday’s game will be the fourth time Strasburg has faced the Mets this year. He is 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA against New York.
Despite his slip-up against Arizona, Strasburg has been excellent for most of the year, posting a 14-5 record and is at or near the lead in most of the NL pitching categories. Michael Conforto has two lifetime home runs against Strasburg but is hitting only .167 in 24 plate appearances against him. Jeff McNeil is three for six and Wilson Ramos five for twelve against the Nationals’ star.
Marcus Stroman will be making his home debut for the Mets on Friday. The Long Island native should have plenty of support from friends and family along with a (hopeful) full house. Stroman, who almost never gives up first inning runs, gave up a run before he got an out in his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The first four Bucs who faced him each got a hit. He settled down in the third and fourth inning and showed his athleticism with a terrific defensive play.
Overall, Stroman pitched 4.1 innings against Pittsburgh, allowing three runs on 7 hits while throwing 92 pitches.
Many of the Nationals have faced Stroman in their careers with Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Dozier and Kurt Suzuki each having two RBIs against the New York right-hander.
Saturday, August 10: RHP Noah Syndergaard vs LHP Patrick Corbin 7:10 PM
2019 Stats: Syndergaard 8-5 record, 3.96 ERA (3.44 FIP), 1.206 WHIP, 8.9 Ks/9, 2.4 BB/9; Corbin 9-5 record, 3.43 ERA (3.25 FIP), 1.172 WHIP, 10.4 Ks/9, 2.4 BB/9
Noah Syndergaard has been excellent since the All-Star break pitching to a 1.78 ERA in five starts. He has gone at least seven innings in each of those outings. He is 1-1 in three starts in against Washington this year and 4-6 lifetime. Despite multiple rumors to the contrary, Noah did not get traded before the July 31 trading deadline.
He responded on August 4 by pitching seven innings of one run, three hit ball against the Pirates to notch his eighth win.
Anthony Rendon has a .324 BA against Noah with two home runs and seven RBIs. Victor Robles is 4 for 7 with three of the four hits, home runs.
Patrick Corbin will be making his fifth start against the Mets on Friday. He has not fared well in his two outings at Citi Field yielding seven runs in eleven innings (5.73 ERA). On Sunday, he also had his problems with the Diamondbacks giving up five runs on seven hits over 5.1 innings. His near 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio has been impressive.
Michael Conforto is hitting .353 with four homers and nine RBIs versus Corbin. Todd Frazier is hitting .400 against the Nationals’ southpaw while Pete Alonso is stroking .364 with one four-bagger.
Sunday, August 11: RHP Jacob deGrom vs RHP Anibal Sanchez 1:10 PM
2019 Stats: deGrom 7-7 record, 2.77 ERA (2.85 FIP), 1.070 WHIP, 11.5 Ks/9, 2.2 BBS/9; Sanchez 7-6 record, 3.67 ERA (4.42 FIP), 1.314 WHIP, 7.7 KS/9, 3.3 BB/9.
Anibal Sanchez is in his 14th Major League season and his first full campaign with the Nationals. He has pitched well enough to have Dave Martinez shuffle his rotation to put him in this spot against the Mets. He faced New York only once this year on May 16, but left after only 1.1 innings with an injury. Sanchez returned from the IL on May 29 and has pitched to a 2.82 ERA in his last 12 starts.
After an 0-6 start, Sanchez has won his last seven decisions, the last coming on Tuesday in a 7-6 Washington victory over the Giants. Sanchez pitched well, allowing only one earned run on four hits in six innings pitched. He will be pitching on four days rest in this spot.
Jacob deGrom has been pitching like, well, Jacob deGrom lately . In his last 14 starts, Jacob has an impressive 2.08 ERA and has held his opponents to a .591 OPS over that stretch. He has only given more than two runs once during this run and has lowered his season ERA to 2.77. Unfortunately, due to poor run support and a leaky bullpen, deGrom is only 4-2 during this two and a half months of stellar pitching.
DeGrom is 1-0 this year and 8-4 lifetime (2.44 ERA) against his division foes. Anthony Rendon is hitting .400 against Jake with one home run while Trea Turner is hitting .290 with one homer and three RBIs.
Prediction: If the Mets want to make the postseason, first baseman Pete Alonso said, they will need to “slay the giants” obviously referring to the top teams in baseball. Well two giants are coming up for the Mets with these three against the Nationals then three against the division leading Atlanta Braves.
The Mets are white hot right now and carry a strong 32-20 home record. The problem is that they are only 28-40 this year against teams over .500. (They are 8-5 so far against the Nats). The pitching match-ups are close, but slightly tilted in the Mets favor. If Stroman can somehow get the best of Strasburg in the first game, things could get very interesting very quickly. The Mets will also have to control stolen base threat Trea Turner.
The feeling here is that the Mets did what they had to do against lesser opponents and are not going to pull a Jekyll and Hyde just because the Nationals are the opponent. Also, the Nats, at 14-11 since the All-Star break, have not exactly torn up the league lately. It will be a tough series, but the pick here is that the Mets grab two out of three from Washington, setting up an intriguing series with the Braves.
