The Mets (9-6) nine game stretch in between off-days continues as the team heads back up north for a three game series against the first place Philadelphia Phillies (9-5).

The Phillies started the season with a three game sweep over the Braves and a win over the Nationals, but since then, the team has gone (5-5) over their last ten games. As expected, due to the team’s high profile off-season acquisitions, the offense has been one of the best in the MLB currently ranking 6th in runs/game (5.6) and 9th in OPS (.793). They have also done an excellent job managing the strikeout having posted the 7th fewest K’s so far this season and having drawn the 3rd most walks in the league.

While scoring runs hasn’t been a problem, preventing them certainly has been for the Phillies as their rotation has struggled to find some consistency so far this season. The last two times through the rotation saw non-quality starts from Nick Pivetta (2x), Aaron Nola (2x), and Zach Eflin.

The bullpen has also been inconsistent as over half of its members currently hold an ERA over 5.00, including David Robertson, Serathony Dominguez, Jose Alvarez, Juan Nicasio, and Edubray Ramos. They are also coming off an extra innings game which required 8.0 IP of from them which may cause Robertson, Dominguez, and their best RP thus far, Victor Arano, to be unavailable for part of this series.

April 15: Noah Syndergaard (R) vs Aaron Nola (R)

Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (38%) [92-96 mph], Sinker (15%) [92-94 mph], Curveball (34%) [78-80 mph], Change-up (13%) [84-87 mph]
2019 Stats: 1-0 record, 6.46 ERA (7.26 FIP), 1.435 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 4.7 BB/9

As we noted above, Nola has REALLY been struggling so far this season with FIP showing that his stats should actually look even worse than they do right now. The most troubling trends for Nola have been A) how few bats he is missing and B) how much Hard Contact he has been allowing. In his last start against the Nationals on April 9th, Nola only generated a total of four swings and misses across his 99 pitches thrown and he allowed six batted balls with an exit velocity of over 100 mph.

Despite the struggles, Nola does have a good matchup here against the Mets as active current batters only have a .241 AVG/.687 OPS against him across 97 plate appearances. Despite having the platoon advantage both Michael Conforto (.143 AVG/.503 OPS) and Brandon Nimmo (.167 AVG/.611 OPS) have struggled against Nola having struck out in 32% of their combined plate appearances.

While Wilson Ramos (3-for-8) and Jeff McNeil (4-for-9) have had some success in limited sample sizes, the team’s biggest weapon against Nola, Yoenis Cespedes (.429 AVG/1.538 OPS) is still recovering from double heel surgery.

April 16: Steven Matz (L) vs Nick Pivetta (R)

Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (55%) [94-97 mph], Curveball (30%) [80-83 mph], Slider (13%) [84-87 mph], Change-up (2%) [87-88 mph]
2019 Stats: 1-1 record, 9.45 ERA (5.10 FIP), 2.175 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9

Things have been even worse Pivetta as he’s failed to post a quality performance in any of his three starts thus far. While he has been missing bats (ten swinging strikes last time out) he’s been allowing a lot of hard contract with 42% of the batted balls against him having an exit velocity of greater than 95.0 mph (Compared to 34% in 2018). He has also been struggling to finish batters off when he has a two strike count as batters have posted a .290 AVG against him with a .484 SLG to go along with it.

Pivetta has also generally struggled against the Mets with a 2-2 record, 6.39 ERA against them across five career starts, although, four of those starts came in 2017 against a vastly different roster. No current Met has more than 7 ABs against him but, as a collective group, they do have a .314 AVG/.893 OPS against him across 35 ABs.

The group is led by Amed Rosario’s 4-for-7 performance and solo home runs from Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud. This could also be a spot where we see Dominic Smith get a start over Pete Alonso as he is 2-for-7 with a double and a walk against Pivetta.

April 17: Zack Wheeler (R) vs Jake Arrieta (R)

Repertoire: Sinker (59%) [93-95 mph], Curveball (10%) [81-85 mph], Slider (13%) [91-93 mph], Change-up (17%) [88-89 mph]
2019 Stats: 2-1 record, 2.25 ERA (4.75 FIP), 1.150 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 4.5 BB/9

Its amazing what a normal off-season and full length spring training will do for a player. After not signing until half-way into spring training in 2018, and subsequently posting a lackluster velocities, swing and miss rates, etc., this April has been much better for Arrieta as he’s already racked up three quality starts to open the season.

There are some underlying concerns as the average exit velocity against and the Hard Contact % numbers are up so far this year against him, however, the average launch angle vs Arrieta’s signature sinker still remains relatively unchanged. So even though batters are making better contact, they are still just pounding balls into the ground which makes for some easy outs.

Arrieta has had some solid success against the Mets in his career with a 2-3 record, 2.34 ERA, and a 1.041 WHIP against them in his career. Current active Mets have a .263 AVG/.668 OPS against him across 88 plate appearances.

It will be interesting to see if 3B Todd Frazier will be active in time for this game as he’s had significant success against Arrieta in his career posting a .304 AVG/.942 OPS with 2 HR and 6 RBI in 24 plate appearances. Wilson Ramos (4-for-7), Jeff McNeil (3-for-6), and Travis d’Arnaud (3-for-5) have also had success against Arrieta, although, in much more limited sample sizes.