The New York Mets surely looked at the J.D. Davis glass as being half-full when they gave up three mid-level, reasonably-high ceiling prospects to acquire the 25-year-old from the Houston Astros.
Over five minor-league seasons, Davis holds a .292/.362/.521 slash line with 105 homers, 393 runs batted in, 126 doubles, and 543 strikeouts in 507 games. His potential and ceiling are clearly high enough, but his productivity at the major-league level — or lack thereof — is where things get murky.
Over 221 plate appearances between 78 games split between Houston and the Mets, Davis has hit just .202/.281/.348 with seven homers, 16 RBIs, and eight two-base hits. His 57 strikeouts at the highest level were to be expected, but not being able to catch up to low-90s fastballs will get you in a ton of trouble as a major-league hitter.
His 2019 didn’t get off to a great start on either side of the chalk. Before his two-homer game in the Mets’ April 6 win over Washington, Davis was hitting just .150/.227/.250 and he’d made a handful of cringe-worthy plays at third base. But there was hope for J.D. Davis, yet.
His Statcast metrics project Davis as a .351 hitter with a .633 slugging percentage via expected stats. His 95.1 mph average exit velocity ranks within the 97th percentile in the majors and his 20% barrel rate puts him in the top six percent of the league’s hitters. That’s elite, no matter how you slice it.
Since his power surge last week, Davis has begun to produce like the player his stats indicate he can be. Over his last 18 plate appearances (heading into Sunday night’s game versus the Braves), J.D. Davis is slashing .385/.556/.846 with those two homers, three singles, five bases-on-balls, and just two strikeouts.
On Sunday night, Davis added his third home run of the season, a 106 mph, 20-degree trajectory rocket that just cleared the wall in right-center field. It feels like the more chances Davis gets to acclimate himself to major league pitching, the more his confidence increases and the better he fares at the plate.
Whether he sees any more time in the Mets’ cleanup spot with the outstanding production coming out of Michael Conforto these days is unknown. But J.D. Davis’ performance over the last week or so has certainly given his critics some pause and given the New York Mets a few more reasons to believe in him. If he can keep this up, the Mets may have themselves a gem.
With Todd Frazier set to return soon, Luis Guillorme appears to be the next guy on the chopping block. Davis’ recent resurgence probably saved his hide for the time being, but his continued productivity will be critical to keeping him around once Jed Lowrie gets healthy.
Davis’ glove may very well be a liability, but his bat appears to be something pretty special. That should provide him with ample opportunity to get himself on track.
