Jordan Humphreys

Pos: SP     B/T: R/R     Age: 6/11/1996 (22)
Acquired: 2015 June Amateur Draft – Round: 18, Pick: 14, Overall: 539, Crystal River HS, FL
2018 Stats: DID NOT PLAY (Tommy John Surgery – Aug 29, 2017)

Jordan Humphreys spent the entirety of the 2018 season on the shelf, recovering from Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow. Unfortunately, Tommy John Surgery has been a harsh reality for many professional baseball players, and in particular, pitchers. Bill James Online notes that, in 2018, more than 25 percent of pitchers had undergone the procedure. An April 2018 piece in The Hard Ball Times showed us that, in 2017, 86.7 percent of all major league games featured at least one pitcher that had undergone TJS.

On the bright side, TJS has a success rate of over 90 percent. What was lost for Humphreys was a year in development, but his skills are likely still on the table.

Spanning three seasons in professional baseball, through five different levels, Humphreys has amounted 167.2 innings with a very solid 2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.39 K/9, and a 1.56 BB/9.

Humphreys started building a degree of notoriety among the Mets organization in 2016 pitching in Kingsport. Clocking in a very nice 69.1 innings of 3.76 ERA/2.81 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 9.87 K/9, and 1.95 BB/9, and lead the Appalachian League in strikeouts (76). That performance earned him a promotion to Brooklyn for the end of the season, in which he had one very impressive start (6 IP, ER, BB, 9 K).

2017 was the true breakout season for Humphreys. Instead of repeating Brooklyn, a 21-year-old Humphreys was appropriately placed in Low-A Columbia. Humphreys made the South Atlantic League All-Star Game, though he did not pitch in the game, and finished the year with another nice 69.2 innings of 1.42 ERA/2.16 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 10.33 K/9, and 1.16 BB/9. This performance earned Humphreys yet another promotion, this time to high-A St. Lucie. Unfortunately, that promotion was short-lived, as Humphreys’ injured UCL finally gave out, and it was recommended that he have Tommy John Surgery.

Following that 2017 season, Baseball America rated Humphreys’ as having the best control tool in the Mets organization. That control has been his calling card throughout his professional career.

Humphreys is a three-pitch pitcher whose arsenal is lead by a low-to-mid 90’s fastball that touches 95. What is impressive is the ability to throw this fastball for strike be it up or down, left or right. The fastball is likely about as good as it will get.

Humphrey also holds a combination of a changeup and a curveball as his secondary offerings. His changeup plays a bit better than his curve and shows as an above-average offering. Often used inside on hitters from both sides of the plate to disrupt tempo, it rides from the low-to-mid 80’s. Once again, his control comes to play as he’s able to throw it for strikes regularly His curveball plays a bit below his curve, but has rated from average to flashing slightly above. Baseball America notes its high-spin rate, and low-70’s velocity as changing eye levels on hitters during his sequencing.

(Video shows use of fastball and curveball.)

Humphreys is likely to start the year at high-A St. Lucie and could move quickly if he shows the game control and ability to produce swings and misses. Moving out of the South Atlantic League will test Humphreys’ ability to keep the ball in the part, as he’s only allowed six home runs in his professional career, including two in what appears to now be a pitchers haven in the SAL.

One thing to keep an eye on is the groundball rate, as his dropped from 49.7 percent in Kingsport in 2016 to 39.9 percent in Columbia in 2017. As he continues to develop his secondary offerings, it will behoove him to keep the ball, not only in the ballpark, but also on the ground to ensure his success.

A realistic, positive outlook for Humphreys is a back end of the rotation kind of guy. While he can pile on the strikeouts right now in the lower levels, it will be increasingly difficult to remain entirely effective deep into games with just three pitches, and no true plus off-speed pitch. Having all average or better pitches, with noted excellent control may help his case. There’s also a chance he could succeed in a role similar to how the Rays played Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos in 2018 if such a role were to catch on around the league. Low-end on the positive end of the stick, he still has a solid repertoire for a multi-innings reliever and can make a career in that role.

Editor’s Note: Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Luis Santana, and Ross Adolph, were all in our original Top 25 before they were traded.

Previous Rankings

50-46 Led by Michael Paez
45-41 Led by Ranfy Adon
40-36 Led by Anthony Dirocie
35-31 Led by Ryley Gilliam
30-26 Led by Chris Viall
25 Carlos Cortes         
24 Ali Sanchez
23 Eric Hanhold
22 Luis Carpio
21 Freddy Valdez
20 Walker Lockett
19 Junior Santos
18 Gavin Cecchini