Spring Training is now literally around the corner. For the most part, the Mets might be done shopping but rumors appear to be going around that the Mets want a veteran starter.
Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn‘s names have surfaced as possible targets for New York, but appear unlikely due to the draft compensation. We can have a discussion about whether or not Lynn or Cobb are worth second round picks, but we should not use that logic in determining if they should sign them and give up a second round pick just because they had second round picks that did not work out.
The last three second rounders, Desmond Lindsay, Peter Alonso, and Mark Vientos, all have some promise going forward. Just because Matt Reynolds or Cory Mazzoni didn’t become major league regulars doesn’t mean they should be punting second rounders.
I digress. The seemingly more realistic options appear to be Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia, and Jeremy Hellickson. There’s also Andrew Cashner but I think Cashner’s 2017 (in terms of counting statistics) and his stuff, will get him a more sizable contract as opposed to those guys. Of all these players, Vargas projects to have the lowest ERA according to Steamer while Garcia projects to have the lowest FIP. Jimenez projects to have the highest K/9 among those guys and Hellickson’s calling card might be the fact he’s arguably the healthiest among all of them.
Vargas had a bounce back 2017 after being hurt much of 2015 and 2016. It was a tale of two halves for the veteran, who was an All-Star but struggled at times. He had a 2.62 ERA in the first half with a 3.80 FIP but had a 6.38 ERA and a 5.94 FIP in the second half. So who one earth would the Mets get? The guy who was one of the better pitchers in baseball or one of the worst pitchers in baseball?
The answer is probably somewhere in between. Vargas gave up a staggering 27 home runs in just 179.2 innings with 16 of those home runs coming in the second half of the season. He ranked slightly above average in terms of exit velocity against him and in exit velocity on balls hit in the air.
One more thing to note about Vargas was his changeup. Among pitchers who threw at least 10 change ups, Vargas’s ranked 10th in spin rate at 2,227 revolutions per minute. He’s probably a solid pitcher at this point who will give you 160-180 innings of 105 ERA+ baseball. He should be better since he’s another year removed from Tommy John Surgery but he might be also better if he’s limited in the number of times he’s allowed to pitch in the third time through the order.
Garcia had some decent years for the Cardinals but injuries have taken a toll on him. He has thrown 328.2 innings the last two years so that’s a positive. He’s also managed a 92 ERA+ in those innings which is below average but it is not Tommy Milone level of bad.
His slider ranks 11th in spin rate at 2,788 revolutions per minute. In terms of his other pitches, Garcia ranks 77th out of 476 in spin rate with his change up, 36 out of 345 in spin rate with his curveball, and 104 out of 681 in spin rate with his fastball. He’s not as good as his spin rate suggest but I’m definitely impressed by the movement Garcia is able to generate on all of his pitches. He’s well above average with all of his pitches and has much better stuff than I imagined. If he ever manages to locate these pitches, then he could be a very intriguing pitcher going forward.
Jimenez’s slider still gets above average movement on it as it ranks 188 out of 522 in terms of spin rate at 2,417 revolutions per minute. He also ranked 91 out of 345 in terms of generating spin rate on his curveball. Ubaldo is that guy who will always have those few seasons of dominance as a reason for someone to take a shot on him.
I will also add this disclaimer as I usually do: spin rate does not equate to direct success. It only means you get good movement on your pitches. It doesn’t mean you’re the next Clayton Kershaw. The Houston Astros unlocked the potential of Lance McCullers. and Charlie Morton using spin rate. I would say that organization did well for themselves.
My idea: Me personally, sign Garcia. Best stuff and he has the potential to be something more than just your average innings eater like Bartolo Colon. I’d also take a flier on Jimenez and let him compete for a starting job but move to the bullpen if things don’t work out. Lot of failed starters become good relievers and I’d be interested to see Ubaldo get a shot there. The Mets could use some luck in terms of finding their version of Brandon Morrow.
