Jacob deGrom has been one of baseball’s best pitchers since his arrival in 2014. This year has been interesting for the lanky righty. He has shown signs of being a dominant pitcher but he has been burned by the home runs.

After giving up two more home runs on Wednesday night, deGrom has already allowed ten on the season in just 68 innings giving him a career 1.3 HR/9.

DeGrom’s BB/9 is 3.84, easily the highest of his career. His first strike percentage is at 61.8%, the lowest of his career. The percent of pitches where the count against deGrom is either, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2 is 25.98%. In 2015, when Jacob was at his best, that number was at 21.57%. This essentially shows deGrom is behind the count more which naturally leads to more walks.

Another problem with being behind in the count, he now has to throw more pitches in the zone and his breaking pitches. According to Pitch/FX, his O-Swing% (percent of pitches out of the zone that are swung at) is 30.4%. To contrast, that number was 36.5% two years ago. Hitters are swung at 51.7% of the pitches they saw from deGrom in 2015 compared 47.8% this year. Essentially what these are saying, deGrom’s breaking pitches are not fooling hitters and he is behind in the count more often. They are more patient with deGrom and are know that they can wait him out and see if he makes a mistake.

Maybe the biggest issue is his over-reliance on his slider. He is throwing that pitch 25.7% of the time, easily the highest of his career by nearly 7 percentage points and 10 points higher than 2015. The pitch has always been a plus for him but maybe it is becoming too predictable for opposing hitters, especially if he doesn’t command the pitch and throw it for strikes. Sliders are typically put-away pitches, perhaps hitters know that pitch is coming and they are more willing to lay off that pitch.

This all forces deGrom to throw more right down the middle. The Shiny App shows that deGrom has thrown 24.04% of his pitches down the middle, that number was 21.85% two years ago.

DeGrom was at his best when he was throwing his fastball and getting ahead in the count. This year, he has accumulated his strikeouts due to his plus stuff and great velocity but he can still be much better. He needs to trust his fastball and start throwing it more similar to how he did his first two years.

I believe he will rebound, but hopefully it will be sooner rather than later with the Mets rotation continuing to be an issue.