The New York Mets took a gamble on Monday, trading highly touted second base prospect Dilson Herrera and promising left-hander Max Wotell to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Jay Bruce. It’s a trade the Mets had to make, given their glaring inability to hit with runners in scoring position this year, along with the plethora of injuries to many of their core nucleus.
But this trade wasn’t just about the 2016 season. No, General Manager Sandy Alderson knew exactly what he was doing when he crafted the trade with the Reds. He has one eye on this year, with the Mets still in close proximity to the second Wild Card, and still within shouting distance of the division leading Washington Nationals, and the other eye on 2017.
With Yoenis Cespedes expected to opt-out of his three-year $75 million deal, there’s no guarantee that the Mets will be able to re-sign the Cuban slugger long term. That’s where the power bat of Bruce comes in to play. He has a team option for next year at $13 million, extremely reasonable considering he’ll be entering his age 30 season, and has hit over 25 homers in six of nine seasons.
Of course, if the Mets were able to re-sign Cespedes to pair with Bruce in the middle of the order, that would provide the Mets with a dynamic righty-lefty power threat that hasn’t been seen since the switch hitting Carlos Beltran and the lefty slugger Carlos Delgado were doing damage in Shea Stadium ten-years ago. And adding Bruce to a lineup that includes Cespedes would lengthen the lineup even more for 2017.
Bruce is having a strong bounce back season after having two down years in 2014-15, where his slash line and OPS were all severely down compared to his All-Star campaigns in 2011-12. Currently, Bruce has a line of .262/.313/.553, with 25 homers and an NL leading 80 RBI before Wednesday’s contest against the Yankees in the Bronx. Those numbers are trending more in line with his career 162-game average, .249/.319/.470 with 31 homers and 95 RBI. At the pace Bruce is currently on, he should break the 100 RBI mark for the second time in his career (2013), and eclipse the 30 homer mark for the fourth time in his career.
Bruce isn’t perfect, far from it. Some detractors are hesitant with Bruce in his declining numbers from 2014-15, where his OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ were all down considerably from his previous seasons. And having a young player start to regress in his mid to upper twenties leads to some cause for concern. Additionally, Bruce is not regarded as a strong fielder, rated negatively in UZR on FanGraphs where he’s currently at -11.5, and hasn’t posted a positive rating since 2013.
However, Bruce has bounced back offensively in 2016, seeing his strikeout percentage down to 20.9% this season, an area he hasn’t normally hovered around since his sophomore year in 2009 (19.4%). He’s also making harder contact than the two down years, currently registering at 37.5% on FanGraphs compared to 32.9 and 35.4% in 2014-15. And the harder contact has aided in more extra-base-hits this season, currently at 53 which is fourth in the NL.
Another encouraging stat from the hulking lefty is that his BABIP is at .273, right around his career norms which means he’s not getting too lucky this season, so there’s hope that the regression in 2014-15 was just a bump in the road for the 29-year-old.
Then of course, there’s Bruce’s numbers with RISP this season, currently at .356/.402/.711 with eight homer and 52 RBI. Those are huge numbers for the Mets, some might say foreign to this current group, who currently sport a measly .208/.285/.330 with RISP prior to Wednesday’s game. If Bruce can even replicate his career numbers with RISP, .248/.350/.452, that would offer an upgrade over what the Mets have been compiling over almost 2/3 of the season.
Moving forward to the offseason, Alderson should look to package Curtis Granderson in a trade, possibly with a good prospect to make the deal more enticing, or the Mets could eat a portion of the $15 million he’s owed for his final season of the four-year $60 million deal he signed in 2013. The Mets need to move forward with Michael Conforto, and need to have him prepare for centerfield for the foreseeable future. Of course, if Cespedes doesn’t re-sign with the Mets, they could choose to shift either Granderson or Bruce to left, but then you’d have a lefty-laden outfield. Best case scenario, re-sign Cespedes for left, have Conforto train and prepare for center in the offseason, and have Bruce patrol right.
The Mets will hold out hope that Bruce provides the additional offensive spark that the lineup has been lacking for much of the year, and can add improved numbers with RISP to help drive in runs. It’s an all hands on deck approach at this point, especially now with the news that Lucas Duda will be shut down an additional 30 days due to discomfort in his rehab, which more than likely means we won’t see Duda until 2017. So while Bruce offers hope for this season, especially with six games remaining against the Nationals and seven against the Marlins, he also offers a reasonable power solution at a fair rate for 2017.
