It’s incredible to think that Yoenis Cespedes is back with the Mets. Everyone associated with the team should be thrilled and proud for how it all came together. Cespedes’ presence in the Mets lineup obviously makes them a significantly better team than the alternative Alejandro De Aza and Juan Lagares center field platoon. The question is, how much better?
Well, first let’s all understand that Cespedes is not going to produce at the same level of production as when he first arrived to the Mets and posted a .942 OPS. He was insanely hot, hitting 17 homers with 44 RBI in just 57 games as a Met. That’s roughly a 50 home run pace. He has power, but he’s never shown that kind of power. Cespedes also isn’t the .150 hitter we saw struggle in the World Series.
Cespedes is a career .271/.319/.486 hitter. According to Baseball Reference his 162 game average is 30 homers and 103 RBI. His OPS+ is 122. His wRC+ is 121. All of this is to say that the Mets will get some very solid production out of that cleanup spot from Cespedes.
I took a look at three of the more popular projection systems and they all seem to think he’ll hit a little worse than his career averages in 2016:
- Marcel: .265/.309/.480 with 26 homers and 88 RBI
- Steamer: .266/.312/.463 with 26 homers and 72 RBI
- ZiPS: .270/.312/.498 with 30 homers and 98 RBI
So, the projection systems, for what they’re worth, see Cespedes’ production dipping slightly in 2016. Part of that could be his first post-30 year old season. Part could also be his .236/.302/.491 batting line at Citi Field. Or maybe these projections are just plain wrong and Cespedes will surprise a lot of people and produce an even better season in 2016 than he did last season.
Obviously, the Mets need Cespedes to be that 30+ home run guy this season. He needs to be that guy not only because the lineup needs that right-handed power threat, but also to makeup for the fact that he’s a poor defensive center fielder.
Remember, Cespedes has a career -12.6 UZR and -17 DRS in center field, a point that was driven home quite often by Sandy Alderson this Winter. Those are ugly numbers for sure, but they should be somewhat abated by Juan Lagares coming in late as a defensive replacement thereby shifting Cespedes to his natural left field.
The thing is, Cespedes’ immense impact on offense should far exceed any occasional missteps in center field – and that’s exactly what the front office is banking $27.5 million on in year one of the deal.
And what bodes well for the Mets is that Cespedes will be plenty motivated as he seeks to produce at a high level in what is essentially his walk year before testing free agency again after the season.
With his bat returning to the middle of the Mets lineup, the Amazins should be projected to win the NL East. And once they get to that point, they have the pitching to win the World Series. I’m projecting a very fun and exciting 2016 ahead.
