On Monday, Jon Heyman proposed that the Mets should trade righthanders Noah Syndergaard, Dillon Gee and Rafael Montero, plus catching prospect Kevin Plawecki and infielder Wilmer Flores to the Rockies in exchange for $30 million in cash and Troy Tulowitzki.
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Bloggers and sports columnists have been all over the possible Troy Tulowitzki to the New York Mets story. Where it stands is that many say, “it’s definitely not happening” and others say, “it’s unlikely, maybe a 5-10% chance.”
So the odds are pretty slim that something like this will go down. I thought I’d come at the question based on how far apart the two sides probably are for starters and then seeing how far each party would have to move to get within hailing distance of a deal.
First, here’s what’s known. Tulo is owed $114 million to play from now through the 2020 major league season when he’d be 35 years old. To keep things simple let’s ignore the $15 million team option for 2021 and just say that whomever he is playing for will use the $4 million buyout option. So the player is owed $118 million through 2020 and dividing that by six seasons it means he would be averaging $19.7 million per year.
Here’s what Colorado apparently wants:
1. The trading partner to assume ALL of the remaining monies due the player.
2. At least four top quality assets. If the trade is with the Mets they reportedly want Noah Syndergaard, Zach Wheeler or Jacob deGrom, Kevin Plawecki, and more.
Here’s what the Mets probably want (and still may not do):
1. That Colorado pays a LARGE chunk of the monies due Tulo.
2. While willing to part with Syndergaard, they will not part with Wheeler deGrom.
If Colorado insists on both #1 and #2 then surely there won’t be a trade. In fact it is almost certain that if the Rockies insist on either #1 or #2 then it’s still no deal.
So for a deal to happen Colorado will have to pour in some dollars and come off their demand for Wheeler or deGrom.
Let’s do the dollars first.
In the recent Matt Kemp deal the Dodgers are giving the Padres about 29% of Kemp’s contract. Let’s round up and say that the Mets ask/demand the maximum they could reasonably ask for which is 30%. In that case the Mets would owe Tulo a total of $82.6 million which averages $13.8 million per year.
If the player was even close to healthy that would be a bargain of tremendous magnitude. Hell, the Mets are going to pay Bartolo Colon $11 million for the upcoming season. How would it be paying just a bit more for an MVP candidate at their weakest position?
The problem obviously is that the Rocks want to pay zero and in this example are paying about $36 million. Would they go for that even with a nice haul of prospects? I think not.
So let’s kick it down a notch and look at 25 percent rather than 30.
In this case, the Mets would be paying the player $88.6 million, an average of $14.75 per season. While this is well within bounds for most teams I could see the Mets already balking here given the Wilpons’ sketchy finances.
And if the Rockies said they’d pay – but not a penny over 20% – then the Mets would be on the hook for $94.4 mill and that averages out as $15.7 per season. This is David Wright territory financially and I’m quite sure the Mets won’t go there.
Then there’s the question of who goes to Colorado. Thor is a given. Wheeler is not going. The second pitcher figures to be Dillon Gee (someone the Rockies are known to like a bit), Jon Niese (someone the Mets like more than Gee, but would be willing to move under the right circumstances), or Bartolo Colon (the Mets could save some money there, but the Rockies don’t figure to want a flyball pitcher in their goofy stadium).
If the finances were right I could see the teams agreeing on a package of Syndergaard, Gee or Niese, Plawecki, and one more from a group of: Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Rafael Montero, Steven Matz, or Amed Rosario.
For the Mets to even contemplate going through with this the Rockies likely have to agree to pay something between 25 and 30 percent of Tulowitzki’s contract.
I don’t see it happening but, then again, the Rockies do seem to want to move this player and other teams are starting to get tapped out when it comes to finances.
Few other clubs have the kinds of prospects that the Mets can offer. If Colorado sees the Mets as their only possible dance partner who knows how far they may stray from their current negotiating position to get it done.
