Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets won their second series in a row, this time against a powerful Blue Jays lineup.

The team gave the Jays the middle game of the three-game set to destroy baseballs into the Citi Field bleachers, but the Mets were largely able to keep the Blue Jays’ bats at bay in the two bookending games of the series. Then, just as many of the series wins have featured this year, the offense scratched across just enough runs at just the right times to eke out a couple wins.

The Mets ended the series at 52-44, four games up on the Phillies and with a chance to completely bury the Braves’ NL East hopes on the horizon.

3 Up

Boppin’ Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso hit 74 home runs in about 12 minutes of Home Run Derby time. Then he came back from the break and hit five home runs in his next 38 at-bats, including three this series against the Blue Jays.

Two of them came Friday night to account for all three runs in that game. The next came in Sunday’s comeback win, as Pete worked the count full against Ryan Borucki–the same guy he homered off once on Friday–and smashed a game-tying dinger to left to tie the game at three. He had to shrug.

Alonso has carried his power display from the Derby over to the second half, but more importantly, that power has translated back to Citi Field. He had just three home runs at home all year before his three this weekend. His home slugging percentage this year is 180 points lower than his road slugging percentage, compared to a career difference of about 65 points. That gap can close over the next week with eight more games at Citi.

Winning At Home

After two more wins at home this series, the Mets are 30-15 at Citi Field. That’s the third-best home record in baseball.

Though their offense continued to struggle at home (outside of Pete Alonso, as we just discussed) this series, the pitching held the Blue Jays offense relatively in check for their two wins, allowing zero and four runs in each dub.

Performing well in home games–especially against division rivals, like the five they have coming up against the Braves–are going to be important for padding the team’s lead in the division as they continue to struggle on the road. They’ve got eight more in a row coming down the pike.

Tylor Megill Is On A Scoreless Streak

It feels like I’ve wrote about Tylor Megill trending upward in every series he’s pitched in, but he’s earned in.

Just about each start of the 25-year-old rookie’s has outdone the other. After throwing six scoreless against the Pirates last weekend, Megill threw another six scoreless against the Blue Jays, who have one of the best offenses in baseball. He kept his pitch count low this time around, too, with just 78 thrown through the six innings. He’s now thrown 13.2 straight scoreless innings.

Friday, Megill abandoned his curveball, which he’d been throwing occasionally (less than five percent of the time this season), similar to how Jacob deGrom ditched his curveball all but a handful of times this season. In fact, his fastball percentage (57.8 percent) is eerily similar to deGrom’s. Megill has the same two primary off-speed pitches–a slider and change up–that land in similar locations as deGrom’s do.

Tylor Megill’s slider and changeup locations in 2021:

Jacob deGrom’s slider and changeup locations in 2021:

Both pitchers are in the top two percent of the league in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging (xSLG).

Now, Tylor Megill is not Jacob deGrom, nor should that be who fans expect him to develop into. However, Megill clearly has good stuff, and even if his ingredients and control aren’t quite what deGrom’s are, he seems to still be following the same recipe.

3 Down

Taijuan Walker‘s Struggles

Taijuan Walker closed out the first half of the season with an All-Star nod, taking the place of teammate Jacob deGrom. It was a magical end to the first half after years of injuries culminated with recognition of a job well done.

The second half, though, has started about as bad as Walker could’ve hoped.

After giving up six more runs Saturday against the Blue Jays, Walker has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in four innings pitched in the second half. The home run was the problem Saturday as he gave up three of them to the homer-happy Blue Jays–including a three-run dagger from Marcus Semien after an 11-pitch at-bat.

After 16 great starts, where he never allowed more than four earned runs in a start, Walker had a bizarre outing against the Pirates where he only recorded one out, which will never happen again, then gave up a bunch of homers when he has one of the lowest home run rates in the league. That’ll likely not happen again, either.

There was sure to be a little regression with Walker after his 2.50 ERA in the first half based on expected statistics (both his xFIP and xERA were a run higher than his actual ERA), but there will also be a bit of a market correction after the 11 earned runs in four innings. He’ll try to get back on track against the Braves in the upcoming series’ finale.

So Many Base Runners

The Mets allowed 37 walks and hits to the Blue Jays this series, and since the All-Star break, they’ve allowed 1.46 walks and hits per nine innings–a bottom five mark in the league. (Before the break, the Mets were tied for fourth with a 1.17 WHIP.) It’s just so many base runners, most of whom are getting on base with contact.

Facing a team like the Blue Jays, who are home run heavy, they were able to avoid some big innings, like in Rich Hill‘s first five on Sunday, when he let the leadoff man on all five innings. (The Jays got to him in the sixth, and they also just mashed a ton of homers Saturday.) But against teams like the Pirates and Reds, who hit for a bunch of contact and low power, the Mets’ staff struggled.

This is obviously is partly due to not having Jacob deGrom, who misses everyone’s bats, and replacing him with Jerad Eickhoff and Rich Hill, who pitches to contact. Then there’s the bullpen that’s had to take a couple games’ worth of extra innings over the last week, and when you have guys like Anthony Banda, Stephen Nogosek and Geoff Hartlieb throwing multiple innings, the hits will eventually pile up.

Their opponent for the next five games, though, is the Braves, who are one of the worst teams in the league at making contact both inside and outside of the strike zone. That may play to the Mets’ advantage as they look to get their primary starters back (or acquire one in a trade).

Knowing Who’s Gonna Pitch

After watching the Mets in real time patch together 23 innings against the Pirates and Reds last week, we’re at the point now where the injuries and roster moves from those games have caught up with the rotation, so we’re not even sure who will pitch two of the Mets’ upcoming games against the Braves. Like, it’s hard to even play phony GM and think of who will eat a couple innings both those games.

Monday’s Game 2 and Tuesday’s game are both currently TBD.

Could the Mets just run with a bullpen game in Game 2 of the doubleheader? Could they re-sign Eickhoff, should Eickhoff want another game check? Will the Mets dare to ask Anthony Banda or Vance Worley to throw a couple innings? Will they made a trade in the next 24 hours, and could that player arrive in time for Tuesday’s nighttime start? We’ll have to watch and find out, as they say.