2024 NL East Position Rankings: Starting Rotation Edition

Next up in MMO’s ranking of National League East position groups are the starting rotations. This grouping features two of the top in all of baseball, one that is full of young potential studs, and a couple still trying to find their way.

No. 5 — Washington Nationals

There is really no debate about it, it is pretty clear who owns the worst rotation in baseball. Despite having a fine one-two punch a the top, the Nationals are likely in for another long season. 

Josiah Gray, a former top prospect of the Los Angeles Dodgers who came to the Nationals in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade, gave up 38 home runs in just 2022 alone, leading the major leagues. Then, in 2023, he cut that number to 22, dropping 46th. It was a remarkable turnaround, and at just 26 years old, he still has a lot of room to grow.

MacKenzie Gore, another former top National League West prospect, who came to the Nationals from the San Diego Padres in the Juan Soto trade, had a decent first full season in 2023. His 4.42 ERA was about league average, and like Gray he’s young, turning only 25 in February.

After that, it drops off. Jake Irvin had an okay rookie season (24 starts, 4.61 ERA), and will pitch the 2024 season at 27 years old so there’s room for growth there. Patrick Corbin is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, but he has also made over 30 starts every season since 2017 (besides 2020). Then, it’s rounded out by former Met Trevor Williams who had a 5.55 ERA in 30 starts during 2023.

Former first-round pick Jackson Rutledge made his MLB debut in September of 2023 and wasn’t great, but he could be in the mix for 2024. Who knows, maybe he snags the final rotation spot from Williams. Whether he does or doesn’t though, it won’t make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things in 2024. The fifth-place Washington Nationals have a rotation that fits their place in the standings.

No. 4 — New York Mets

The 2024 Mets rotation projects as a slightly below-average unit by several outlets. Specifically, Fangraphs projections has the group ranked as No. 20 when it comes to projected WAR. The completely revamped group carries quite of bit of risk, and potential reward, as currently constructed. 

The breakout star for the Mets in 2023, Kodai Senga, is one of the most electrifying pitchers in baseball. His ghost fork had the highest whiff rate of any pitch thrown by a starting pitcher in 2023. In his first season, Senga posted a 2.98 ERA and struck out 202 batters across 166 1/3 innings. He defied all expectations, and as a result, set new ones for 2024. He entered last season as the No. 3, now he’s the ace.

José Quintana is behind Senga, and after missing a good chunk of 2023, he finished the year strong after coming back. In 13 starts, Quintana put up a 3.57 ERA in 75 2/3 innings. If he can pitch a full season, he can be a valuable piece to the rotation.

Now, come the new additions. Luis Severino was maybe the worst pitcher in baseball last season, finishing with an almost unimaginable 6.65 ERA in 19 games and just under 90 innings. A reason for hope: that was the first time his ERA had been over 3.40 since 2016. The bad news: he has only about 210 innings pitched from 2019-2023. It’s probably unrealistic to expect a full season from Severino, but also not crazy to think he can be better than he was last year. It’s almost hard to be worse.

Sean Manaea had an interesting 2023. In his first eight games, he had a 7.96 ERA. From that point on, he had a 3.44 ERA. However, he only made four starts in that 29-game stretch compared to six starts in that first eight-game stretch. The Mets are going to have him start again, so who knows what they’re gonna get. Was it simply a horrible eight-game stretch that can happen to anyone, or was his turnaround a direct result of no longer starting? There’s no way to know for sure right now, but the Mets obviously hope it’s the first one.

Rounding out the rotation is Adrian Houser, acquired via trade from David Sterns’ former team, the Milwaukee Brewers. Stearns obviously knows Houser, so the fact he went out and targeted him with the Mets is a vote of confidence that the new president of baseball operations believes he can be a contributor. He’s not a star, but he should be a very strong No. 5. From 2019-2023, Houser has a 4.04 ERA and 106 ERA+. For a No. 5, that’s not bad at all. Again, not a star, but you could do a lot worse at the back end of a rotation.

For the first time since 2014, the New York Mets are entering the season without a (likely) future Hall of Famer in their rotation. There’s no Jacob deGrom, no Max Scherzer, no Justin Verlander. The rotation is mostly in a transition year. Luckily, the Mets have a lot of young guns in the pipeline who will be coming up over the next couple of years. Examples include Christian Scott, Blade Tidwell, Mike Vasil, Dominic Hamel and Tyler Stuart. In the meantime, the organization is doing the smart thing by not rushing them and filling out the rotation with starters on short-term contracts until the time is right to give the kids the call.

No. 3 — Miami Marlins

There is a very real chance that next year, the Marlins are No. 1 on this list. With no Sandy Alcántara for all of 2024 though after he underwent Tommy John surgery, they’ll have to settle for third.

Jesús Luzardo had a true breakout, following up a very good 18 starts in 2022 with an excellent real first full season, despite making his debut in 2019. Traded to the Marlins from the Athletics in 2021 for current Met Starling Marte, Luzardo has turned into a borderline ace for the fish. He might not be a true No. 1, but he’s close. That said, he doesn’t need to be a No. 1 — the next guy will be.

Eury Pérez is among the best young pitchers in baseball. He has some of the best stuff in the game, and will still be 20 years old on Opening Day. Pérez made his debut last year and was excellent, putting up a 3.15 ERA and 142 ERA+ over 19 starts. The Marlins aggressively managed his innings and kept him under 100 on the year, and they could manage them again in 2024, but he’s still expected to be given a larger workload.

Braxton Garrett had a surprise breakout last year, and very similarly to Luzardo followed up a strong half-season in 2022 with a very good full 2023. Over 31 games (30 starts), Garrett put up a 3.66 ERA about 160 innings. He was just one of 25 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings and keep his ERA below 3.70. Miami was one of just six teams to have two pitchers do that, with Garrett and Luzardo.

Edward Cabrera is a bit of a wildcard. He has electric stuff, but there are also games where he just can not find the strike zone. His 15.2% walk rate was in the first percentile in baseball last year, so it basically couldn’t have been worse. Despite this though, he still put up 4.24 ERA in 22 games (20 starts) even though he lost his rotation spot for about a month and a half in the second half of the season. If he can limit the walks, he can be a legitimate weapon in the rotation.

In 2021, Trevor Rogers was electric. He made 25 starts, threw 133 innings with a 2.64 ERA, and finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting. In 2022 though, it was basically the opposite. His ERA ballooned to over five, and was injured for a notable portion of the year. 2023 was even worse, not from a performance side but because he was only able to make four starts. Will he be healthy in 2024? And if he is, what type of pitcher will he be? Rogers could be great, and if he is that could boost the Marlins rotation up a few spots on this list, but it’s far from a guarantee. 

The Marlins also have depth. They acquired Ryan Weathers from the Padres who is good minor league insurance, and have a number of top prospects still on the pitching side, even after the promotions of arms like Perez and Cabrera. Max Meyer should return from his Tommy John surgery back in 2022 at some point in 2024, and pitchers like Patrick Monteverde and Dax Fulton could make their debuts as well. Their two top prospects, pair of 2023 draftees Noble Meyer and Thomas White, are still a handful of years out, but Miami has no shortage of young arms coming through their system.

No. 2 — Philadelphia Phillies

Headlined by a true ace in Zack Wheeler, the Phillies should have a strong rotation in 2024. Wheeler had a bit of a down 2023 in terms of ERA at 3.61, but a down season for him is a great season for most pitchers. He was still very good and finished sixth in National League Cy Young voting.

Aaron Nola was re-signed thos offseason to a massive seven-year, $172 million deal. He’ll be a one-club player and probably a Phillies Hall of Famer, but it may be a contract too big for the production he actually brings. He does eat innings, which in today’s game is getting more valuable every year, but he also finished last season with a 4.46 ERA. His 96 ERA+ puts him at a technically below-average pitcher, and that’s the second time he’s been that in the past three years. He’ll turn 31 in June and the Phillies are locked in for the next seven years, there’s a good chance his contract does not age well.

Ranger Suárez has been a solid starting pitcher for the Phillies the past two years, but the issue is if he’ll be able to stay on the mound. He only made 22 starts in 2023 to the tune of a 4.18 ERA, both down from his 29-start, 3.65 ERA showing in 2022. If he can stay healthy, Suárez will likely be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for Philly.

Then there’s former met Taijuan Walker. The story with Walker in his first year with the Phillies was the same as his story with the Mets. Good first half, bad second half. Except in 2023, his good first half wasn’t even great. It was fine, but his ERA was still a hair over four — and then went up but almost a run in the second half. And once again, he was not trusted with a postseason start, or even appearance.

Instead, it went to Cristopher Sánchez, the young starter who put up a 3.44 ERA in 19 games (18 starts) in 2023. The now-27-year-old southpaw was impressive in his first true extended MLB look, and even if his first postseason start wasn’t stellar (two runs, one earned over 2 1/3 innings), he’s definitely an interesting piece to their rotation.

Top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry could both make their MLB debut in 2024, and while Andrew Painter is a longshot to make it back from Tommy John surgery in time, it’s not completely out of the question.

No. 1 — Atlanta Braves

The Braves don’t just have the best rotation in the NL East, they might have the best rotation in baseball. They have start talent, they have depth, and they have strong prospects.

Spencer Strider is obviously the No. 1. He was excellent as a rookie in 2022, and then weird in 2023. His FIP and xERA all say he should have had another excellent year, but on the surface, he didn’t. He was fine, but in 32 starts he put up a 3.86 ERA, 28th among qualifiers. He still stuck out a ton of batters and the voters still put him fourth for the National League Cy Young, but then didn’t get the job done in the postseason again. The ERA will likely come back down for Strider in 2024 and he should be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but his 2023 numbers are definitely at least, interesting.

Max Fried is maybe the best No. 2 starter in baseball. He only made 14 starts in 2023 which is the big concern with him, but when he’s healthy, he’s excellent. With a 2.55 ERA in 2023 and 2.66 ERA since 2020, Fried is one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. As long as he’s healthy, he forms a deadly duo with Strider at the top of the rotation.

Charlie Morton is still hanging around with his signature “Uncle Charlie,” and he turned in yet another strong season in 2023. The now-40-year-old made 30 starts, pitched 163 ⅓ innings and put up a 3.64 ERA. In his three seasons with Atlanta, Morton has thrown over 500 innings to the tune of a 3.77 ERA. Age is simply not slowing him down. Could it finally catch up to him in 2024? It’s obviously a possibility, but don’t count on it.

Speaking of older pitchers, the Braves traded for Chris Sale right before the new year. The seven-time All-Star and current all-time K/9 leader hasn’t been the same pitcher since he turned 30. From 2019-2023, Sale has made just 56 starts and thrown a hair under 300 innings with an ERA over four. The 2023 season was even the first time since 2019 he threw more than 50 innings. If there’s any team who can get him back to his perennial All-Star form it’s the Braves, but who really knows what Atlanta will get out of him.

Bryce Elder takes the No. 5 spot in the rotation following what was really the tale of two seasons for him in 2023. His first half was great on the surface (18 starts, a 2.97 ERA and an All-Star selection), but his underlying metrics pained a picture of impending regression. His second half was rough, making 13 starts with a 5.11 ERA. He’ll turn just 25 years old in May, so he still has a ton of room to grow, but if he struggles out of the gates, the Braves have arms waiting in the wings to replace him.

AJ Smith-Shawver made his MLB debut with a solid six game, and is currently one of the highest-ranked pitching prospects in baseball. Allan Winans, a former 17th-round pick of the Mets, also made his debut last year and had some ups and downs, but showed promise in a small sample. The same goes for Darius Vines, and while he was used partially in relief, he picked up two quality starts in two tries. The most interesting arm though might be Hurston Waldrep, who the Braves took in the first round in 2023 and accelerated through their farm system. He made it all the way up to Triple-A, and had a 1.53 ERA in the minors across four levels.