ADAM OTTAVINO, RHP
Player Data: Age: 37 (11/22/1985) B/T: S/R
Primary Stats: 66 G, 61 2/3 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.216 WHIP, 62 K, 29 BB, 12 SV
Advanced Stats: 132 ERA+, 23.8% K%, 11.1% BB%, 3.53 xERA, 4.52 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, -0.1 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR
2023 Salary: $7.25 million
Grade: C+
2023 Review
After somewhat of a career renaissance in 2022, the Mets rewarded Adam Ottavino with a two-year, $14.5 million contract. In the first half of the season, the 37-year-old struggled, posting a 3.72 ERA and allowing five homers in 36 2/3 innings. In MMO’s First Half Report Cards, he was given a ‘C’ grade for his performance.
In the second half, Ottavino looked a little more like his old self, posting a 2.49 ERA and allowing just two home runs over 25 2/3 innings. He got most of the team’s save chances after David Robertson got dealt, finishing the season with a career-high 12 saves.
Across the board, this season was a step back for Ottavino. His strikeout rate decreased from 30.6% to 23.8%, while his walk rate spiked from 6.2% to 11.1%. Additionally, Ottavino’s hard-hit rate jumped from 30.1% to 40.7%, though his ground-ball rate increased to 54.9%.
Ottavino’s velocity decreased on all of his pitches, with his four-seam fastball dropping from 94.7 miles per hour to 93.1. Ottavino’s sweeper was less effective, with its whiff rate decreasing from 38.4% to 23.5% and its run value going from 14 to 1. However, Ottavino still produced strong expected stats against the pitch as opponents had just a .211 xSLG against it. His best pitch by run value was his change-up – opponents hit just .122 with one home run against it.
While Ottavino served as the team’s closer late in the season, his numbers in high-leverage situations were ugly. His opponents posted a 1.017 OPS in those situations, and six of the seven home runs he surrendered were in late and close situations. Ottavino also struggled when pitching on back-to-back days, posting a 6.10 ERA when pitching with no days rest. As usual, Ottavino was hurt by the running game, allowing 22 steals in 23 tries. Ottavino still held his opponents to just a .571 OPS with men on base and a .578 mark with men in scoring position.
2024 Outlook
Ottavino has a $7.25 million player option for the 2024 season, but he said after his last appearance that he hasn’t made a decision on whether or not he will exercise it. If he does choose to return, Ottavino will likely slot into a similar role that he had in 2022, serving as a setup man for Edwin Díaz. Even though this wasn’t his best year, Ottavino proved he can still be effective and can be relied on for 60-plus appearances over the course of a full year.
