Player Data: Age: 35 (3/21/87), B/T: R/R
Traditional Stats: 29 G, 152 IP, 15-7, 3.97 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 152 SO, 161 H, 41 BB, 67 ER
Advanced Stats: 1.3 bWAR, 97 ERA+, 3.53 FIP, .338 BABIP, .272/.326/.425
2022 Salary: $12 million
Grade: C+
2022 Review
Carlos Carrasco had a significantly better season in 2022 for the Mets than he did in his first year with the team in 2021. That being said, he didn’t quite return to his form from the half-decade before the Mets traded for him.
Carrasco had a solid year as the team’s No. 4/5 starter in the rotation, though. Staying healthy and remaining on the field was his biggest reason for a much-improved 2022 campaign.
His biggest split of the season came with his performances against good and bad teams. Against teams under .500, he threw 92 innings and posted a 2.54 ERA in 17 starts. In his other 12 starts against teams over .500, though, Carrasco gave up 41 runs in 60 innings, good for a 6.15 ERA. He had an occasional bad performance against bad teams (four runs in three innings late in the season against the Marlins), and an occasional good performance against good teams (eight shutout innings against Atlanta in May), but overall, he was pretty predictable when he’d have better starts than others.
On top of that, he was much better pitching in front of his home field crowd at Citi Field, posting a 3.56 ERA and allowing eight home runs in 17 starts. On the road, his ERA ballooned up to 4.57 and allowed nine home runs in 12 starts, tossing 30 less innings outside of Citi Field.
His platoon splits were not far apart from one another, but he actually fared better against left-handed hitters. Left-handed hitters slashed .249/.306/.418, while right-handed hitters slashed .289/.342/.431 against Carrasco.
He tossed seven innings or more in just four starts throughout the year. Of his 29 starts, he pitched less than 5 innings in 10 times, which is not exactly ideal. He pitched four or less innings in his last three appearances of the season, struggling mightily against the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins in late-September. He pitched four innings in the Mets final regular season game against the Washington Nationals.
He was able to make it through the season with just one short injured list stint, making 29 starts on the year. That’s a vast improvement from his 2021 health streak, and he provided a level of consistency at the back-end of the rotation with deGrom and Scherzer out for large portions of the year. Carrasco was left off of the 3-game Wild Card Series roster, and did not make a postseason appearance in 2022.
2023 Outlook
The Mets will have a decision to make with Carrasco who has a team option worth $14 million for the 2023 season. It would have automatically vested had Carrasco thrown 170 innings. He fell 18 short, and his IL stint is to blame. The Mets can still pick up the option, though.
Their decision may or may not be swayed by their impending free agent starting pitchers in Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. It’s also worth noting Edwin Díaz and Brandon Nimmo will be looking for long-term deals in free agency.
Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler will need to make some tough decisions on whom to allocate the bid money to this offseason. Despite all of the pending decisions, Carrasco at $14 million on a one-year contract is not bad value. They wouldn’t be tied to him long-term, and for 2023 would have a proven veteran starter in the backend of their rotation. Can you get him for an extra year and less average annual value, though?
Bringing back Carrasco would give the Mets a bit more flexibility going into 2023 with question marks riddled throughout their rotation. Of course things can change quickly, but the only Mets starting pitchers under contract for 2023 are Max Scherzer, David Peterson and Tylor Megill.
