Player Data: Age: 26 (6/15/1995), B/T: L/L
Primary Stats: 145 G, 493 PA, .244 BA, .304 OBP, .363 SLG, .667 OPS, 109 H, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 32 BB, 112 SO
Advanced Stats: 86 wRC+, 22.7% K%, 7.4% BB%, .297 BABIP, .291 xwOBA, -0.5 fWAR, -0.7 bWAR
2021 Salary: $2.55 million
Grade: D+
2021 Review
After a career year during the shortened 2020 season, big things were expected out of Dominic Smith in 2021. Like several other Mets’ offensive players, it was a year-long struggle filled with disappointment for Smith. Despite setting a career-high in at-bats and plate appearances, his overall production did not increase, instead it declined severely.
As mentioned above, Smith had a career year in 2020. He slashed .316/.377/.616 and hit ten home runs while driving in 42 runs. Smith was also an extra-base machine as he also totaled 21 doubles. For comparison’s sake, pro-rating those statistics would give Smith 25 home runs, 106 runs batted in, and 53 doubles over the same number of at-bats he got this season. In those same number of at-bats though, he only hit 11 home runs, drove in 58 runs, and tallied 20 doubles. Smith’s power fell off a cliff. Why was this?
Given the evident drop in his traditional statistics, the decline in play was also certainly evident in his underlying numbers. The below chart features some select statistics, and how severe they declined from 2020 to 2021, from Baseball Savant:
| 2020 Percentile Ranking | 2021 Percentile Ranking | Percentile Change | |
| Avg. Exit Velocity |
66th |
43rd |
-34.85% |
| Max. Exit Velocity |
77th |
65th |
-15.58% |
| Hard Hit % |
83rd |
47th |
-43.37% |
| Barrel % |
86th |
31st |
– 63.95% |
| xwOBA |
93rd |
47th |
– 49.46% |
| xBA |
95th |
69th |
– 27.37% |
| xSLG |
94th |
48th |
– 48.94% |
To explain the chart simply, the decreases in the first four rows explain the decrease in the last three, as well as his decline in his traditional statistics. It appears the main reason for Smith’s woes was his inability to make solid contact. As the third row shows, Smith was barreling the ball far less. In addition, he also was not hitting the ball in the “sweet spot” at nearly the same rate. In 2020, his sweet spot percentage was 43%. It dropped three full percentage points to 40% this past season.
So, why the lack of hard contact? It can be a plethora of different things. However, one main statistic that jumps out was Smith’s 4.1-degree change in launch angle. Smith tried elevating the ball a lot more which may have led to the lack of solid contact and subsequent lack of power. For reference, Smith’s xSLG last year was a career-high and one of the best in the MLB (.563) with a launch angle of only 10.8 degrees. This year that angle ballooned to 14.9 degrees and his xSLG, like all of his other metrics/traditional statistics, severely dropped to .416.
Defensively, it was also a struggle for Smith. He was forced into playing the outfield once again as the universal designated hitter rule was revoked after being instituted during the COVID-19 shortened season. Over 859.2 innings in the outfield, he had a defensive runs saved (DRS) of minus-five. This number was tied for 53rd of 72 qualified outfielders who played at least 700 innings. Also, hit total outs above average ranked in the league’s second percentile. Worth noting, Smith was much, much better when he was able to spell Pete Alonso and play first base. However, he only did so for 70.2 innings.
All the above culminated in Smith’s play suffering so much that his playtime was severely cut by the season’s end. He went from an everyday player to riding the pine and serving as mainly a left-handed pinch-hit bat off the bench. For context, over the last 33 games of the season, Smith only started five of them.
2022 Outlook
Smith is arbitration-eligible this offseason. He is under team control through the 2024 season. Currently, MLB Trade Rumors arbitration tool projects Smith to receive a $4 million salary this season, up from $2.55 million the previous year.
Overall, this is a very important year for the 26-year old Smith. With reports of the universal designated hitter rule seeming likely to return in 2022, Smith may get another chance at playing more first base. Will playing his natural position help him regain his 2020 form? Will he be able to get back to the mechanics that saw him on pace for 100-plus runs batted in and 50-plus double just two years ago? The Mets certainly hope so.
