Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Player Data: Age: 26 (9/3/1995), B/T: L/L
Primary Stats: 15 GS, 66.2 IP, 5.54 ERA, 1.395 WHIP, 2-6, 69 SO, 29 BB
Advanced Stats: 73 ERA+, 24.0 KK%, 10.1 BB%, 5.88 xERA, 4.78 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 0.3 fWAR, -0.5 bWAR
2021 Salary: $585,750
Grade: D-
2021 Review
There was very high, may be even too high, of expectations for left-hander David Peterson coming into last season. After pitching to a 6-2 record with a 3.44 ERA in nine starts during the COVID-19 shortened season, a lot was expected last season. Unfortunately, for Peterson and the Mets, there was regression instead of progression this past season. After making 15 lackluster starts, Peterson was injured twice ending his season.
The season started as poorly as possible for the second-year pitcher. He allowed six runs in his first start of the season in Philadelphia. Overall, through his first 11 starts of the season, he pitched to a 6.60 ERA. Across these 45 innings pitched to begin the year, he gave up 50 hits and walked 21.
Overall, his underlying season metrics painted an even more depressing picture. Per Baseball Savant, Peterson ranked below the league’s 20th percentile in the following important categories: Avg. Exit Velocity, Max. Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel %, and spin rate. His sinker, which he threw the most of any of his pitches, got obliterated with an xBA of .301 and xSLG .491. It was a disaster of a season for the former Oregon Duck.
So, what went wrong for the southpaw? Several different aspects jump off the page when making a year-over-year comparison. The below chart shows the main difference, that being related to the type of contact opposing hitters were making:
(per Baseball Savant) |
2020 Percentile Ranking |
2021 Percentile Ranking | Percentile Change |
|
Avg. Exit Velocity |
65th | 15th | – 76.92% |
|
Max. Exit Velocity |
50th | 4th | – 92.00% |
|
Hard Hit % |
70th | 19th |
– 72.86% |
| Barrel % | 48th | 16th |
– 66.67% |
| xBA | 60th | 11th |
– 81.67% |
| xSLG | 55th | 12th |
– 78.18% |
As you can see, batters were hitting Peterson extremely hard. When bat hit the ball, the ball ended up flying and generating hits and runs for the opposition. Thus, the terrible ERA and performances on almost every fifth day. The first step in getting back to his 2020-21, Peterson must figure out how to once against cut down on the hard contact.
As for his pitches and pitch use, Peterson decided to throw his sinker a lot more this past season (29.6% of the time compared to only 15.8% of the time in 2020). Coincidentally enough, his sinker, as mentioned above, was his worst pitch. The confusing part of this, his sinker also was poor last season, but he still threw it a lot more this year. Additionally, his four-seam fastball (.213 xBA and .367 xSLG compared to .253 xBA and .462 xSLG in 2020) and especially slider (.285 xBA and .519 xSLG compared to .133 xBA and .367 xSLG in 2020) regressed which further doomed Peterson.
It was not all bad for him. As right before he was injured, it appeared he was making some progress. He strung together three starts against the Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, and Philadelphia Phillies where he pitched to a 1.11 ERA over 16 and 2/3rds innings pitched. Over these innings, he struck out 14 and only allowed six hits. Unfortunately, the start that followed that stretch was his final of the season. Peterson allowed six earned runs and the Mets lost to the Atlanta Braves 20-2.
After that game, Peterson was placed on the injured list where he spent the remainder of the season. First thanks to an oblique injury that reportedly occurred during the 20-2 loss, then a freak fractured toe injury that ended his season.
2022 Outlook
The Mets hold Peterson’s rights until the 2026 season. He is not arbitration eligible until the 2023 season. As pointed out above, Peterson made $585,750 last season. Despite the season-ending toe injury last year, he is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training.
As the Mets’ rotation currently stands, Peterson is slated to battle with Tylor Megill for the fifth slot. If the Mets make another starting pitcher signing, which appears likely, this would slide Peterson into a depth role. If this becomes the case, he will most likely begin the season in the minors, refining his game and trying to limit hard contact. However, Peterson is just a major league injury away from making a MLB return.
