Amed Rosario
Player Data: Age 24 (will turn 25 on 11/20), B/T: R/R
Primary Stats: 46 G, 147 PA, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 4 BB , 34 SO, .252 BA, .272 OBP, .371 SLG, .643 OPS
Advanced Stats: .305 BABIP, .277 wOBA, 76 wRC+, 76 OPS+, 0.1 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR, -3 DRS, 2 OAA, UZR/150 3.5
Free Agent: 2024 Arb eligible: 2021
2020 Salary: $609 Thousand
Grade: C-
2020 Review:
Amed Rosario‘s improvement, both offensively and defensively in the second half of 2019 encouraged the Mets to keep him as the starting shortstop position for the 2020 season.
Not only did he not run with it, he didn’t run well at all. After stealing 24 and 19 bases in 2018 and 2019, he did not swipe a single bag was caught once in 2020.
His sprint speed, according to Baseball Savant has actually decreased every year since 2017: from 30.1 (99.1 league rank) to 29.4 (96.1) to 29.2 (94.2) to 28.7 (92.4) in 2020. Given that his speed is his best asset, this is not a good trend, on offense or defense.
His offense also took a huge step backwards, with a drop in wRC+ from 100 to 76. He chased more pitches and did not draw walks, leading to a .12 walks to strikeouts ratio, down from .25 in 2019.
Rosario will need to significantly improve his on base percentage and his power to remain a regular player. Stealing bases and running the bases better overall would be a bonus if he did both of those things, and a necessity if he does only one of them.
His defense was better according to UZR/150, from -0.6 in 2019 up to 3.6 in 2020, while his DRS was about the same, prorated by games started, from -10 (in 151 GS at SS) in 2019 to -3 (in 37 GS at SS) in 2020. His OAA improved dramatically from -8 in 2019 to 2 in 2020. The defensive numbers put Rosario at slightly above average as a major league shortstop.
Rosario managed to avoid the explosion of errors that happened in the first half of 2019, while slightly improving his range and success at throwing out batters on ground balls. In his first few seasons he had a habit of misjudging the speed of the batter and just missing the out at first. I attribute this to a lack of baseball instinct and focus.
When I compare Rosario to Gimenez, it is clear that Gimenez has great baseball instinct and drive, and Rosario’s is below average. I’m not convinced this is a teachable skill, unfortunately.
Although he was unhappy to lose playing time as the season went on, he had a good attitude about it and was a good teammate for Gimenez. If Rosario is willing to do whatever he is asked, he will continue to be a positive member of the team and hopefully raise his grade.
If Rosario played some position besides SS, CF, or C, his grade would have been D+ or -. Since he plays a prime defensive position at a better than average level, he gets a C-.
2020 Highlight
Walk-off home run at Yankee Stadium. Wait, how is that possible? Only in 2020.
2021 Outlook
When you play a prime defensive position like shortstop, you can get by with below average offense if your defense is well above average. If your offense is well above average, you can get by with average defense and still be a plus to the team. In 2020, Rosario was a huge minus on offense and slightly above average on defense (but clearly inferior to not one, but two teammates, Andres Gimenez and Luis Guillorme).
The good news is that a return to second half 2019 offensive production, along with continued improvement on defense, would put Rosario in a decent position to regain his starting shortstop position.
The bad news is that Andres Gimenez looks more likely to put together a good year, given that his defense is exceptional, and his bat was surprisingly good for a very young rookie who wasn’t even expected to make the team.
How this will play out will be one of the biggest uncertainties for the Mets going into 2021. Will Rosario be traded? Will he be the starting shortstop again? Will he move to another position, such as centerfield or third base? Will he return to platooning with Andres Gimenez at shortstop, as he did for the last part of the 2020 season?
This depends entirely on the moves by the new and so far, unnamed front office, followed by the decision of the new (or old) manager.
My preference is to try him in CF and 3B in Spring Training, if not in a Winter League. I believe CF would be his best defensive position unless his speed continues its downward trend, and his bat will likely play well there if he gets back on track. If he doesn’t hit, he will be at best a bench player, and positional flexibility is essential for him to even stay in the major leagues.
