Robinson Cano, 2B

Player Data: Age: 37, B/T: L/R
Primary Stats: 107 G, 423 PA, 13 HRs, 39 RBI, 25 BBs, 69 SO, .256 BA, .307 OBP, .428 SLG
Advanced Stats: .280 BABIP, .308 wOBA, 93 wRC+, 96 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR, -6 DRS, -1.5 UZR/150

Free Agent: 2024
2019 Salary: 24,000,000 (Mets Paid: 19M)

Grade: D+

2019 Review

Robinson Cano‘s Mets career did not get off to the best start. The Mets acquired Cano in a trade with the Seattle Mariners that also landed Edwin Diaz. In that deal, the Mets gave up two top 100 prospects, Justin Dunn and Jarred Kelenic. Mets fans were immediately furious about the deal when it went down. Trading away Kelenic was seen as a short-sighted move, that sold low on a first-round prospect.

That sentiment hasn’t gone away, and that should tell people all they need to know about this deal. Kelenic has since gone on to become one of the elite prospects in baseball. While Cano had arguably the worst season of his career.

Cano set a career-low in batting average, BABIP, and RBI, while his wRC+, OBP, SLG, Home Runs, and runs scored were the second-worst in his career. He also dealt with multiple injuries this season, including a hamstring tear that nearly ended his season. That was the first time that Cano played less than 120 games without a suspension.

Defensively Cano was worth -6 DRS. That was Cano’s worst DRS since 2015. That was supposed to be a major reason for the trade. He was supposed to help Rosario by providing him a competent partner in the middle infield, that didn’t work.

Cano’s -6 DRS ranked bottom five amongst second basemen in the MLB. Cano’s wRC+ was bottom eight among second basemen, in between Hanser Alberto and Cesar Hernandez. His 0.8 fWAR was the third-worst amongst second basemen this year. Cano was by all accounts one of the five worst second basemen in all of baseball in 2019.

2019 Key Moment

The Key moment for Robinson Cano is easy to point to. It was one of the few truly great moments Cano gave Mets fans this year. On opening day in his first at-bat with his new team facing off against Nationals ace Max Scherzer, Cano went yard. That was a special moment. After months of fans and media debates about the trade and a possible Cano decline he delivered. He looked like he was going to continue to be the player he always was. For a brief moment, Brodie Van Wagenen looked like a genius. Sadly that was not a preview of what was to come. Rather, it was a brief window into the past. Despite what happened the rest of the year. That home run on opening day still stands out as a moment of what could have been.

2020 Outlook

It’s hard to predict what Cano will be in 2020. He will start the year as the team’s starting second baseman. Other than that it’s unclear. Cano showed signs of finding himself during the second half of the season before tearing his hamstring. His second major injury of the 2019 season. It’s possible that Cano reminds everyone that he is a future Hall of Famer, and one of the best second basemen of all-time.

However, it’s much more likely that decline continues to set in. Even if he manages to stay healthy in 2020 it’s more likely than not that he will replicate his disappointing 2019 season. He is no longer a good defender at second base, he struck out at a career-high rate in 2019, and he had his lowest wRC+ since 2008.

The only reason to potentially believe that Cano could bounce back in 2020 is his .280 BABIP, a career-low. It was well below his career BABIP of .318. This despite a hard-hit rate that was almost five percent above his career average. However, the flip side to that is that Cano put up a soft-contact percentage two percent above his career average.

That’s why Cano’s 2020 season is a mystery. There is no conclusive evidence that he should be getting better or worse in 2020. The only thing to go off of is his age and recent injury history. both of those things work against Cano. What is clear is that the Mets should not be counting on Cano to be a middle of the order bat in 2020.