Brandon Nimmo, OF
Player Data: Age: 25, B/T: L/R
Primary Stats: 140 G, 535 PA, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 80 BB, 140 K, 9/15 SB, .263/.404/.483
Advanced Stats: .351 BABIP, 149 wRC+, .385 wOBA, 150 OPS+, 4.4 bWAR, 4.5 fWAR
Free agency: 2023
2019 Salary: $556K (pre-arbitration)
Grade: A
2018 Review
For someone who was almost traded for Josh Harrison the prior offseason, labeled a reserve outfielder filling in for an injured Michael Conforto, and even optioned to Triple-A 11 games into the regular season, Brandon Nimmo could not have been a more pleasant surprise for the organization in 2018. For the first time since the team’s run to the World Series in 2015 with Curtis Granderson, the Mets had a leadoff hitter with an inherent understanding of the strike zone and an acute ability to work counts and reach base.
Perhaps the most exciting aspect of Nimmo’s first full season was simply the names he lined up with on major league leaderboards. In on-base percentage, Nimmo finished fourth in the majors behind Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Joey Votto at .404. His 149 wRC+ ranked sixth behind the former two as well as J.D. Martinez, Christian Yelich, and Alex Bregman. Nimmo’s 19.7% chase rate was the third-lowest behind Votto and Andrew McCutchen. From behind in the count, he still posted the third-highest on-base percentage in the league at .343 (also behind Betts and Trout), and in two-strike counts, he came in fourth at .342 behind Trout, Bregman, and José Ramírez.
Like most of the players in the list above, Nimmo was a formidable hitter in large part because he simply didn’t have a weakness that opposing pitchers could use to silence him. While fellow leadoff hitter Amed Rosario fell victim to bait pitches outside the strike zone and equally useful table-setter Jeff McNeil struggled to catch up to power pitchers, Nimmo pretty much held his own in one way or another across every split in the book. Even with a .237 average at home and .234 average against lefties in 2018, Nimmo still worked out OPS clips of .822 and .742 while maintaining a hard-hit rate of 37% and 38%, respectively. Despite hitting just .250 with men in scoring position (a solid explanation for his 17 RBI in the second half following a 30-RBI first half), his wRC+ of 158 should certainly turn heads if it hasn’t already.
Nimmo’s stats were threatened on two separate occasions this year following hit-by-pitches in late-June and early-August, the former of which kicked off an unsettling skid into the All-Star break in which he slashed just .156/.289/.234 with 26 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances. Following the second incident against the Philadelphia Phillies, Nimmo was placed on the disabled list with a bruised his left index finger. Upon returning, Nimmo put together a bizarre yet encouraging .258/.459/.404 line while striking out just 22 times in his final 122 plate appearances. Many of his strikeouts can be chalked up to a more submissive bat along the inside part of the plate, and his 39.2% swing-rate was the fifth-lowest in the National League. While Nimmo certainly contributed in his past approach at the plate, it remains to be seen what sort of impact he can make when he works more aggressively.
In terms of his defense, the Wyoming native had his share of troubles navigating right field, as his -5 DRS and .880 RZR can confirm. Center field was a tad friendlier to Nimmo, who did not commit a single error in over 350 innings. His .996 fielding percentage across the three positions was the third-highest among National League outfielders, though his range still lacks relative to Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares, thanks in large part to an average speed profile.
2019 Outlook
With manager Mickey Callaway‘s blessing, Nimmo will pick up where he left off last season as the team’s leadoff man. It remains to be seen whether he or Conforto will assume center field duties, though the most sensible decision would keep Nimmo where he is most comfortable while utilizing Conforto’s stronger arm out of a more demanding position.
Given the concerns about his power entering 2018 and the results themselves, it would be unfair to continue any sort of discussion about Nimmo’s purported merits as a bench player. Having ranked sixth overall in a recent list of the game’s ten best right fielders on MLB Network, there’s no question that, however criminally some may undervalue him, Brandon Nimmo has established himself as a potent bat at the top of the Mets’ lineup. Considering his 5.1 oWAR led the team last year, it’s safe to say the offense is largely contingent on Nimmo playing every day.
Having navigated a full season for the first time in his young career, Nimmo has overcome arguably the toughest obstacle in that he has finally made himself at home on the roster – something that the fanbase had long been skeptical about as the years following the first round of the 2011 Draft rolled on without much to show for. A clear threat when he does swing the bat, Nimmo figures to be just that in 2019, and perhaps even more as he continues to mature and make the necessary adjustments.
