Juan Lagares, CF
DOB: March 17, 1989 (27 on Opening Day)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Contract Status: First year of four-year, $23 million extension ($2.5 million salary)
2015 Recap
After showing the outrageous potential he had in 2014, Juan Lagares came back down to Earth in 2015 in a big way, seeing a decline in both offensive and defensive value.
The thought with Lagares has always been that if he can simply be a league average hitter, his defense will make starting him every day more than worth it. This past season exposed a big flaw in that idea, with Lagares seeing a big drop in defense. After being plus 28 Defensive Runs Saved and plus 18.6 in Ultimate Zone Rating in 2014, his numbers dropped to 2 and 3.5. His arm and range were both worse than what they were in 2013 and 2014, which was clear throughout the season as well.
Lagares also saw his batting line drop from .281/.321/.382 (101 wRC+) to .259/.289/.358 (80 wRC+), a very significant decline. All of this brought Lagares’ overall value down from an overall 4.0 fWAR in 116 games in 2014 to just 1.0 in 143 games this past season.
2016 Projections
Marcel – 478 PAs, .264/.305/.377, 7 HR, 9 SB
Steamer – 410 PAs, .257/.297/.366, 6 HR, 7 SB
ZiPS – 505 PAs, .261/.297/.369, 5 HR, 11 SB
It’s important to note that Lagares will likely be used very differently this season compared to previous ones The Mets will likely look to Lagares to be a capable platoon partner with Yoenis Cespedes in center field for the majority of his playing time. Cespedes will slide over to left field when Lagares is in the lineup, Terry Collins confirmed yesterday. As long as he continues to struggle against right-handed pitching, Lagares will likely get every at-bat possible against left-handed pitching and not very many against righties.
Even in a down year like 2015, Lagares hit left-handed pitching very well. He hit .273/.333/.438 (116 wRC+) against lefties compared to just .253/.271/.328 against right-handed pitching, a 65 wRC+.
For his career, Lagares has hit .279/.325/.427 (112 wRC+) against lefties, so it will really be about whether he can become adequate enough against right-handers to get more playing time. While I don’t think anyone expects Lagares to exclusively play against lefties, he will certainly get as many at-bats as possible against them. I doubt we’ll see a strict platoon in center field this year, especially if Lagares bounces back on defense. Expect Terry Collins to bring him in often late in games as we saw last postseason.
That being said, decreasing his exposure to righties will definitely help Lagares’ overall numbers. So while he won’t get 450 or 500 plate appearances like some of the projections say, he’ll probably hit somewhere around league average. With a bounce back season with the glove, that would make playing Lagares regularly more than worth it.
One last thing to note is how impressed the team was with Lagares at Mets camp, where he showed up in superb physical shape and showed off the defense he exhibited in his 2014 Gold Glove campaign. He also was no slouch at the plate and wrapped up a solid Spring Training, batting .318 with a .400 OBP and .832 OPS. The six walks and three stolen bases were notable as well. He’s still young, having only just turned 27 last week.
