Lucas Duda, 1B
Bats/Throws: L/R
DOB: February 3, 1986 (30 on Opening Day)
Contract: 2nd-year arbitration eligible (Projected $6.8 million)
2015 Recap
Lucas Duda‘s 2014 season earned him almost universal acclaim among Mets fans, yet when he did virtually the same thing in 2015, he became one of the more criticized players on the team.
Duda ended the 2015 season with a fantastic .244/.352/.486 slash line, good for a 133 wRC+. In 135 games, Duda slugged 27 homers and a career-high 33 doubles. However, he also saw his strikeout rate rise from 22.7 percent in 2014 to 24.9 percent.
Defensively, it was more of the same for Duda. Defensive Runs Saved pegged Duda a few runs above average while UZR rated him around average. For such a big guy, Duda plays a good first base and continued to do so this year, even with his infamous throw in the World Series.
However, Duda’s season was overshadowed in many Mets’ fans minds by a long slump that lasted from around the beginning of June until the All-Star break in mid-July. In that span, Duda hit just .163/.278/.279 with three home runs over those 36 games. This was easily the worst slump of Duda’s career. Outside of those five weeks or so, however, Duda was unquestionably outstanding. Many Mets fans will complain (as they always do) about his home runs coming in bunches, but Duda brought a lot more to the table than just home runs.
Overall, Duda posted a very solid 3.1 fWAR in 2014 compared to 3.2 in 2015. Considering he also had a DL stint in there, his season was in many ways a repeat of 2014.
2016 Projections
Steamer – 581 PA, .238/.341/.435, 24 HR
Marcel – 537 PA, .245/.344/.466, 25 HR
I think both of these projections are unfair to Duda and how he’s been able to transform himself as a hitter over the past two seasons. Remember, most projection systems take into account the last three seasons. That would include 2013 which, for Duda, was ugly. In fact, it was so horrific at one point that he was sent down to Triple-A for a while. He hit .224/.352/.415 for the season which I think we can all agree will likely not happen again. Duda is a completely different hitter than he was back then, so 2013’s numbers are just an unnecessary weight.
Looking at his indicators, there is nothing glaring to be found. His BABIP last year was .285, compared to .283 in 2014. His home run per fly ball rate of 15.9 percent was virtually the same as his 16.0 percent rate in 2014. He’s hitting the ball hard at basically the same rates. His plate disciplined has remained as well. Mechanically speaking, there doesn’t appear to be anything that sticks out.
To me, all signs point to another season of 25 to 30 home runs and a batting line in the range of .245/.350/.480. If we get that, we should all be very happy.
