Here is the first of a six-part MMO Special Feature, our 2015 Mets Season Preview. Over the next two weeks, I’ll be previewing our Starting Pitching, Bullpen, Catching, Infield, Outfield and Bench. I hope you enjoy my research, analysis, and insights. Let’s begin with Part 1, our Starting Pitching.
Matt Harvey
Matt Harvey is back, and has looked absolutely incredible in spring training. The 25 year-old looks like he hasn’t missed a beat and if his recent outing against the Yankees – in which he pitched 5.2 innings of dominant shutout baseball – is any indication of his readiness, it’s going to be an exciting season.
The Mets may have lost a big piece with Zack Wheeler tearing his UCL this spring, but they gained someone who was a top five pitcher in 2013. In 178.1 innings, Harvey struck out an unbelievable 191 batters while walking only 31 before going under the knife. His park and league adjusted ERA was fourth in all of baseball while his Fielding Independent Pitching was first. He was also in the top ten in baseball in K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. Had he pitched a full season, a case could have been made for him to win the Cy Young Award over Clayton Kershaw.
Now, it’s always difficult to project pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery because there is no typical response to the surgery. Some pitchers appear to be rehabbing well only to tear their UCL again. The Mets were about as conservative as an organization could possibly be with a Tommy John patient, however, so it’s much easier to be optimistic with Harvey coming into this season.
Just based off four spring starts, Harvey looks as good as ever. Last year, we definitely saw him get a little heavier than we would have liked, but he also knew he wasn’t likely to pitch all year. This spring, he looks even bigger and stronger than he was before, and he has shown he can still crank up the fastball when he needs to.
Steamer projections have him at a 3.02 ERA and a 3.3 fWAR in 177 innings pitched while ZiPS has him at 3.12 with a 2.3 fWAR in 153 innings pitched. However, projection systems tend to be weird with injuries, especially those with lengthy rehab times. Given Harvey’s outstanding spring performances and his 2.63 xFIP in 2013 – a sign that his outrageous ERA wasn’t just a fluke – I don’t see why Harvey can’t far exceed his computer projections.
Bartolo Colon
Bartolo Colon was probably the most under-appreciated Mets last season, and it’s pretty easy to see why he got so little respect from fans. His overall numbers are nothing special. He owned a very pedestrian 4.09 ERA in 202.1 innings pitched.
However, you have to look deeper than those overall numbers to see Colon’s true value last year. Every once in a while, Colon would blow up and have a terrible start. For someone who doesn’t have amazing stuff anymore, this can be expected. Colon has pinpoint control but when that is off – and every pitcher has an off night every few starts – he has very little left to work with. On the other nights, however, he was arguable the Mets’ best pitcher. He went seven or more innings in 18 of his 31 starts, six more than the next closest on the team. He allowed six or more runs in six of his starts, but allowed one or fewer in eight.
It’s tough for people to see how good Colon still is, and that makes sense. But when he was on last year, he was as good as Jacob deGrom, and it was exciting to watch. Colon’s peripherals will never be fantastic because he strikes out so few, but his walk numbers show no sign of slowing down. He’s still got it, it’s just a matter of staying healthy.
In terms of hard numbers for this season, Steamer and ZiPS both have Colon putting up basically the same numbers as last season except in four or five fewer starts. It’s difficult to see Colon pitching over 200 innings again at almost 42 years of age, but I can certainly see his rate stats being exactly where they were last year. For Colon, the projections seem dead on.
Jon Niese
Jon Niese is one of the more intriguing pitchers to try to project for this year. He had an awesome year last year, pitching very consistently and posting a very solid 3.40 ERA (102 ERA+. He only allowed more than three earned runs three times and only went fewer than six innings six times.
There were, however, injury concerns that never manifested themselves last season. His four-seam fastball averaged 89.50 miles per hour after averaging 91.47 miles per hour in 2013. He did have some elbow and shoulder issues in spring training and missed his Opening Day start, but he didn’t miss significant time.
What has me optimistic about Niese this season is his velocity is up this spring. He told the New York Post in February that his arm hasn’t felt this good since 2008 and that he pushed it too hard too early last year. While that may sound a lot like “best shape of his life” talk we hear each year, his pitch f/x numbers and the fact that he said he felt like he had knives in his shoulder last year point to an even better season for Niese in 2015.
The computer projections say the opposite for Niese. Steamer has him posting a 4.05 ERA, returning more to the Niese of 2009-2011. ZiPS has him a little better at 3.77. However, neither of these systems are complex enough to take into account Niese’s comments on his injury history. Niese is 28, coming off his best season yet, and is finally healthy. I see no reason why he cannot at least equal his 2014 statistics.
Jacob deGrom
There was certainly no bigger surprise for the 2014 Mets than Jacob deGrom last season. Who would have thought that a mid-level prospect who put up a 4.52 ERA in Triple-A the year before would suddenly become the Rookie of the Year and one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League? And it only seemed like he got better throughout the season. From July 1 on, deGrom had a 2.10 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 rate while also going six innings or more in his last 12 starts.
deGrom has added another top-flight arm to an already good rotation. At the end of last season, he looked like a future ace. Considering his background as a shortstop and his limited experience as a pitcher, it’s difficult not to be giddy when thinking about how good he can be going forward.
As one of the hardest throwing, most electric young pitchers in the National League, deGrom has a bright future ahead of him.
In 2015, it’s hard to imagine deGrom getting putting up better numbers than in 2014 because he was just so darn good. Being a mid-level prospect with little hype surrounding him, he went into the season a complete unknown, a big advantage that he will be without this season. He was able to get away with some rookie mistakes, such as using his weakest pitch (his slider) in high leverage situations too often. His peripherals were solid. There are no red flags in his xFIP, BABIP, or HR/FB rate. In fact, he is even adding a curveball to his repertoire. However, I just don’t see him getting even better just yet. I think ZiPS, which projects a 3.30 ERA, is a somewhat good projection for deGrom.
Dillon Gee
Here is where, thanks to the Zack Wheeler injury, we get away from the aces and number two starters and on to what is, for most teams, a number four. Mets fans have loved Dillon Gee for the four years he has been with the team. He has been consistently decent and is a likeable guy, but is overrated in my opinion.
The talk of trading Gee for Jurickson Profar really shows how much Mets fans have grown to overvalue Gee. Gee was, according to fWAR, slightly below replacement level last year, nowhere near good enough to be the central piece in any significant trade.
Gee is an ideal back-end starter, but nothing more. Last season, he posted a 4.00/4.52/4.22 ERA/FIP/xFIP line in 137.1 innings with the Mets, missing about two months with a lat injury. After coming back, Gee had a mediocre 4.78 ERA, after posting a 2.72 mark before going to the disabled list.
Gee’s peripherals were below-average last season and his BABIP suggests he was lucky to even post the numbers that he did. However, Gee probably won’t be too far away from average, above or below, and that’s exactly what the Mets need. The number of teams who get anywhere close to league average from their fifth starter is small. Gee could be even higher up in the rotation on many teams. So while he isn’t going to do anything special this season, he shows just how strong the Mets rotation is, Wheeler or no Wheeler.
Waiting in the wings
The depth of this rotation is spectacular, even with Dillon Gee now in it. Waiting in the wings are three exciting young arms: Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, and Steven Matz, all three of whom have the potential to be top-of-the-rotation pitchers. If (more like when, since no rotation ever stays completely healthy) one of the above five get hurt, it will be an opportunity to give one of these exciting prospects a shot. And who knows… maybe we could have a repeat of Jacob deGrom and watch one of them steal a spot from a regular starter. That’s not a bad problem to have.
Make sure to follow me on Twitter @connor_obrien97. And make sure to check back later this week for more previews of the 2015 Mets season.
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