2014 Mets Top Prospects: No. 4 Dominic Smith, 1B

4. Dominic Smith, 1B

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 185 lbs.
Age: 18
Bats/Throws: Left/Left

The Mets drafted a 17 year old Dominic Smith with the 11th overall pick of last year’s draft and he didn’t waste any time showing off his skills. In 173 AB’s across the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League, Smith slashed .301/.398/.439 with 3 HR’s, 26 BB’s, and 37 K’s. He has quite the advanced approach for an 18 year old and could zoom through the system because of it. He’s a pretty patient hitter with good bat speed and a sweet left handed swing. One of the noticeable flaws in his approach is that his hips tend to drift forward on breaking pitches, causing him to make contact on his front foot. This results in weak ground balls to the pull side on pitches he should be driving the other way. However, anyone who considers this a concern at this point in his career would be nitpicking. It is a pretty common occurrence in young hitters and usually a very easy fix.

Dominic’s hit tool should develop into at least above average at the major league level with the ability to hit in the vicinity of .300. His ability to draw walks will also allow him to get on base at a healthy clip. Smith’s power should develop to the point where he’ll be able to hit at least 20 homers per season, which is okay for a first basemen but considering Smith’s other talents, I’d be happy with that. When he was drafted, there was talk that he may be able to play right field because of his solid arm but, although quick footed, he’s a below average runner, limiting him to first base. He has a strong arm, soft hands, and very good footwork so the good news is that his defensive skills there are very impressive already with the potential to be plus as he develops.

Outlook: Smith’s ultimate value as a first base prospect will all depend on how much power he produces. There are some pointing to his height (6’0”) as a factor that could hinder his power. Well, I have a two word answer for those people. Prince Fielder (5’11”), who hit 50 HR’s in 2007. That and the fact there’s a chance Smith could add a few inches as he ages should put any concerns about his height to rest. Smith will also add bulk as he ages and I have confidence that his strong, quick hands should allow him to hit at least 25-30 home runs per season. That packaged with a potential plus hit tool and premium defense makes for a very, very nice prospect. I don’t want to make this comparison but I’m going to anyway. If all goes according to plan his athleticism could allow him to become the second coming of Keith Hernandez. Maybe not as slick on defense, but with more power potential. Because of his success last season, there’s a possibility that the Mets start Dominic in full season Savannah, which might halt the development of his power but I think he’s an advanced enough player to handle the challenge. With his advanced approach and promising tools, Smith could find himself on the fast track to the majors considering the current situation at first base for the Mets. I’ve read some scouting reports that project him to debut in late 2016 but that might be a little optimistic. A 2017 debut is more likely. Whenever he does show his face at Citi, however, he’ll have the chance to be a true impact player.

(Photo credit: Bryan Green)